Irtysh v FC Astana prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Irtysh 0–1 FC Astana FC ASTANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Astana win~~55%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.303

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.378

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Astana win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Astana was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 22–23–55
1′KICK-OFF Irtysh v FC Astana
1′🟨 YELLOW · 1' J. Poe · Irtysh
2′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Irtysh
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Astana win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Irtysh
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Y. Shimamura · Irtysh
44′We said FC Astana at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 20–37–43
45′SECOND HALF Irtysh 0–0 FC Astana
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Irtysh · On: Leonardo Kalil · Off: J. Poe
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Irtysh · On: M. Khalmatov · Off: Y. Shimamura
49′We published FC Astana at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Irtysh 0–1 FC Astana
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' FC Astana win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
51′FC Astana find the net on 50′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–16–81
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 20–37–43 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Irtysh · On: O. A. Falaye · Off: D. Esimbekov
67′We published FC Astana at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' FC Astana win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Astana · On: A. Beysebekov · Off: D. Karaman
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Astana · On: M. Abrayev · Off: D. Marat
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Irtysh · On: D. Berdibek · Off: T. Mukhametzhanov
78′We published FC Astana at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Irtysh · On: A. Nurlan · Off: R. Karimov
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Astana · On: I. Miladinovic · Off: B. Islamkhan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Astana · On: N. Buric · Off: R. Karimov
86′We published FC Astana at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' FC Astana win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Astana · On: D. Shomko · Off: M. Tomasov
FTFULL TIME Irtysh 0–1 FC Astana
FTIrtysh 0–1 FC Astana · FC Astana win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Irtysh v FC AstanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:39 · locked at kick-off

Irtysh win22%

Draw23%

FC Astana win55%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueCentralnyj Stadion

Line-ups

Irtysh

FC Astana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Irtysh

FC Astana

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Astana	25	15	45
13	Irtysh	26	-10	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Irtysh

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rikhard

17 S. Opeh

5 B. Toleuov

25 M. Jevtic

66 S. Malikaydar

6 Y. Shimamura

56 R. Yudenkov

12 R. Karimov

97 J. Poe

7 T. Mukhametzhanov

8 D. Esimbekov

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · Leonardo Kalil

13 · N. Baybosynov

14 · V. Raskatov

15 · D. Nyrkov

21 · D. Berdibek

24 · M. Khalmatov

26 · M. Mbodj

29 · B. Sarnavskyi

31 · E. Rakhmetulla

32 · O. A. Falaye

35 · L. Ramos

77 · A. Nurlan

FC Astana

Formation not confirmed

74 M. Seysen

2 K. Bartolec

6 A. Kasym

5 K. Kazukolovas

11 Y. Vorogovskiy

9 B. Islamkhan

7 D. Karaman

8 I. Basic

10 M. Tomasov

81 R. Karimov

17 D. Marat

Coach · Grigori Babayan

Substitutes

4 · S. Anuarov

15 · A. Beysebekov

20 · N. Ahanonu

21 · A. Merkel

29 · N. Buric

45 · I. Miladinovic

47 · M. Abrayev

77 · D. Shomko

93 · J. Condric

99 · D. Karpikov

Our number · fc astana winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:39 · locked at kick-off

55% The market50%

Us55%

~~Market~~50%

We make FC Astana a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Irtysh v FC Astana~~1.02 – 1.78

~~Last six in Premier League~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 45~~13 v 3

~~The market · FC Astana win~~50% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc astana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Irtysh win	22%	25%	−3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
FC Astana win	55%	50%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Irtysh or draw	45%	50%	−5
Irtysh clean sheet	17%	–	–
FC Astana clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.1 11.0 9.5 5.7 2.6 1 6.5 10.7 9.6 5.7 2.6 2 3.3 5.6 4.9 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Irtysh down, FC Astana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,098 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Irtysh at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Astana away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Irtysh, 1.78 for FC Astana. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCA 2–0 IRT

Form · last six in Premier League

IRTYSH

LWLWWL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

FC ASTANA

DWWLWL1–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	33	60
3	FC Astana	25	15	45
4	Aktobe	27	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	27	4	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	-1	37
8	Ulytau	27	-6	35
9	Zhenys	27	-7	32
10	Kaspiy	27	-8	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	-6	26
13	Irtysh	26	-10	26
14	Kaisar	27	-14	24
15	Altay	27	-14	23
16	Zhetysu	27	-19	22