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FK Tobol Kostanay v FC Astana

FK Tobol Kostanay

2–1Full time

FC Astana

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Centralnyj Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

FK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 FC Astana FC ASTANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Astana win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.724

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Astana win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF FK Tobol Kostanay v FC Astana
2′Much as we predicted: FC Astana was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–25–40
26′⚽ GOAL · 28' FK Tobol Kostanay 0–0 FC Astana
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 FC Astana · A. Talal
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 FC Astana
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' FK Tobol Kostanay 2–0 FC Astana · A. Talal
42′A. Talal scores for FK Tobol Kostanay on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–23–11
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FC Astana win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' FK Tobol Kostanay win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was FC Astana win 11%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' FC Astana
45′SECOND HALF FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 FC Astana
46′We said FC Astana at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 67–23–10
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 FC Astana
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FK Tobol Kostanay 1–1 FC Astana · A. Talal
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FC Astana · On: A. Merkel · Off: A. Kasym
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' FC Astana
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FC Astana · On: R. Karimov · Off: N. Buric
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' R. Karimov · FC Astana
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: V. Lisakovich · Off: Z. Zhumashev
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: U. Milovanovic · Off: D. Zhumat
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' FK Tobol Kostanay 1–1 FC Astana
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' FK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 FC Astana · V. Lisakovich
66′FK Tobol Kostanay ahead on 61′ through V. Lisakovich. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–20–4
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Astana · On: S. Basmanov · Off: D. Marat
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: A. Cisse · Off: N. Zhagorov
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' FK Tobol Kostanay
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' FC Astana
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Astana · On: M. Abrayev · Off: A. Beysebekov
87′We said FC Astana at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FC Astana win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: N. Cavnic · Off: A. Tagybergen
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' FC Astana
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 98' FC Astana win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 98' FK Tobol Kostanay win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was FC Astana win 0%)
FTFULL TIME FK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 FC Astana
FTFK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 FC Astana · FC Astana win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay win35%

Draw25%

FC Astana win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Centralnyj Stadion

Referee · A. Zatula

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FK Tobol Kostanay

Formation not confirmed

44 D. Ustimenko

21 N. Zhagorov

72 R. Senhadji

5 P. Ndiaye

25 A. Borsic

7 Z. Zhumashev

8 A. Tagybergen

6 M. Myakish

30 L. Guerra

14 A. Talal

19 D. Zhumat

Coach · Miroslav Romashchenko

Substitutes

1 · S. Busurmanov

3 · R. Asrankulov

4 · N. Cavnic

13 · A. Cisse

17 · A. Zuev

18 · U. Milovanovic

22 · A. Marochkin

34 · S. Bakhytkiriev

35 · Y. Melikhov

99 · V. Lisakovich

FC Astana

Formation not confirmed

74 M. Seysen

6 A. Kasym

45 I. Miladinovic

5 K. Kazukolovas

2 K. Bartolec

7 D. Karaman

15 A. Beysebekov

11 Y. Vorogovskiy

10 M. Tomasov

17 D. Marat

29 N. Buric

Coach · Grigori Babayan

Substitutes

4 · S. Anuarov

9 · B. Islamkhan

20 · N. Ahanonu

21 · A. Merkel

47 · M. Abrayev

71 · A. Tolendi

72 · S. Basmanov

77 · D. Shomko

81 · R. Karimov

93 · J. Condric

99 · D. Karpikov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FK Tobol Kostanay

Formation not confirmed

44 D. Ustimenko

21 N. Zhagorov

72 R. Senhadji

5 P. Ndiaye

25 A. Borsic

7 Z. Zhumashev

8 A. Tagybergen

6 M. Myakish

30 L. Guerra

14 A. Talal

19 D. Zhumat

Coach · Miroslav Romashchenko

Substitutes

1 · S. Busurmanov

3 · R. Asrankulov

4 · N. Cavnic

13 · A. Cisse

17 · A. Zuev

18 · U. Milovanovic

22 · A. Marochkin

34 · S. Bakhytkiriev

35 · Y. Melikhov

99 · V. Lisakovich

FC Astana

Formation not confirmed

74 M. Seysen

6 A. Kasym

45 I. Miladinovic

5 K. Kazukolovas

2 K. Bartolec

7 D. Karaman

15 A. Beysebekov

11 Y. Vorogovskiy

10 M. Tomasov

17 D. Marat

29 N. Buric

Coach · Grigori Babayan

Substitutes

4 · S. Anuarov

9 · B. Islamkhan

20 · N. Ahanonu

21 · A. Merkel

47 · M. Abrayev

71 · A. Tolendi

72 · S. Basmanov

77 · D. Shomko

81 · R. Karimov

93 · J. Condric

99 · D. Karpikov

Our number · fc astana winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make FC Astana a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc astana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Tobol Kostanay win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−2
FC Astana win	41%	43%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−2
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw	59%	57%	+2
FK Tobol Kostanay clean sheet	23%	–	–
FC Astana clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.8 8.9 6.5 3.2 1 8.1 11.4 8.6 4.3 2 5.4 7.8 5.8 2.9 3 2.4 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Tobol Kostanay down, FC Astana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.64 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Tobol Kostanay at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Astana away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay, 1.49 for FC Astana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.64

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~FCA 2–0 FKT · FKT 2–3 FCA · FCA 1–3 FKT · FKT 1–0 FCA

Form · last six in Premier League

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY

WWLWWL2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 0–2

FC ASTANA

WDWWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+31	57
3	FC Astana	25	+17	48
4	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
5	Aktobe	26	+7	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	+2	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	−2	34
8	Zhenys	26	−6	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Irtysh	25	−8	26
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	−11	25
13	Kaisar	26	−11	24
14	Atyrau	25	−10	23
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	26	−18	22