FK Tobol Kostanay v Aktobe prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FK Tobol KostanayDrawAktobe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FK Tobol Kostanay 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Tobol Kostanay 46%, draw 24%, Aktobe 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FK Tobol Kostanay v AktobeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay win46%

Draw24%

Aktobe win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueCentralnyj Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Tobol Kostanay

Aktobe

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk tobol kostanay winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make FK Tobol Kostanay a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Tobol Kostanay v Aktobe~~1.59 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 41 v 45~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Tobol Kostanay win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aktobe win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw	71%	–	–
FK Tobol Kostanay clean sheet	30%	–	–
Aktobe clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 7.6 4.5 1 9.9 11.4 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.1 4.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Tobol Kostanay down, Aktobe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Tobol Kostanay at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aktobe away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay, 1.21 for Aktobe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AKT 4–1 FKT · AKT 0–0 FKT · FKT 2–0 AKT · FKT 3–0 AKT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY

WWLWWD3–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

AKTOBE

LWWDWL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24