FC Astana v Kaisar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC AstanaDrawKaisar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Astana 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Astana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Astana 71%, draw 17%, Kaisar 11%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on FC Astana v KaisarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Astana win71%

Draw17%

Kaisar win11%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueAstana Arena

RefereeD. Tevyashov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Astana

Kaisar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc astana winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

71% The market71%

Us71%

~~Market~~71%

We make FC Astana a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Astana v Kaisar~~2.27 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 52 v 24~~3 v 16

~~The market · FC Astana win~~71% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Astana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Astana win	71%	71%	0
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Kaisar win	11%	10%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	56%	+2
Both teams to score	47%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	36%	0
FC Astana or draw	89%	90%	−1
FC Astana clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kaisar clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%

0123450 4.9 3.9 1 11.2 8.2 3.2 2 12.4 9.3 3.5 3 9.4 7.0 2.6 4 5.4 4.0 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Astana down, Kaisar across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Astana at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kaisar away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for FC Astana, 0.75 for Kaisar. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAI 0–0 FCA · FCA 5–1 KAI · KAI 1–1 FCA · KAI 0–1 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

FC ASTANA

WLWLWD4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

KAISAR

LLWDLL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24