Atyrau v Yelimay Semey prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 17:54

Atyrau 1–2 Yelimay Semey YELIMAY SEMEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yelimay Semey win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.566

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yelimay Semey win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yelimay Semey was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
1′KICK-OFF Atyrau v Yelimay Semey
32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Atyrau · On: Henrique · Off: D. Deputy
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Yelimay Semey win 33%)
39′39′ and it is 0–1: Yelimay Semey have scored. 0–1 · 8–21–71
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Atyrau 0–1 Yelimay Semey
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Yelimay Semey win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Yelimay Semey win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
40′We published Yelimay Semey at 39%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Yelimay Semey
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' R. Orazov · Yelimay Semey
45′HALF-TIME Atyrau 0–1 Yelimay Semey
46′SECOND HALF Atyrau 0–1 Yelimay Semey
53′We published Yelimay Semey at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Atyrau
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' S. Satanov · Atyrau
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Yelimay Semey
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' R. Murillo · Yelimay Semey
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Yelimay Semey win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
66′We published Yelimay Semey at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
74′We published Yelimay Semey at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Yelimay Semey · On: F. Placca · Off: A. Zhaksylykov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Yelimay Semey · On: H. Ilic · Off: R. Murillo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atyrau · On: K. Dorofeev · Off: E. Ofori
81′We published Yelimay Semey at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Yelimay Semey win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Atyrau 1–1 Yelimay Semey
86′Atyrau find the net on 85′. 1–1. 1–1 · 6–88–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Yelimay Semey win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Yelimay Semey win 6%)
87′We said Yelimay Semey at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 5–89–6
87′R. Dzhumatov scores for Atyrau on 87′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Atyrau 1–2 Yelimay Semey
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Yelimay Semey win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Yelimay Semey win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
89′We published Yelimay Semey at 39%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Yelimay Semey · On: Z. Payruz · Off: China
FTFULL TIME Atyrau 1–2 Yelimay Semey
FTAtyrau 1–2 Yelimay Semey · Yelimay Semey win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Atyrau v Yelimay SemeyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Atyrau win34%

Draw27%

Yelimay Semey win39%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

VenueTurkestan Arena

Line-ups

Atyrau

Yelimay Semey

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atyrau

Yelimay Semey

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Yelimay Semey	26	0	38
12	Atyrau	25	-6	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atyrau

Formation not confirmed

35 N. Tokhtarov

5 S. Satanov

78 E. Khvalko

71 F. Prce

17 K. Kalmuratov

4 M. Rabiu

15 E. Ofori

21 D. Deputy

8 M. Stanic

90 D. Pantelic

44 D. Maksimovic

Coach · Vladimir Cheburin

Substitutes

1 · E. Khatkevich

2 · Y. Tkachenko

7 · Henrique

9 · A. Abdulla

10 · R. Dzhumatov

11 · A. Seytkaliev

14 · K. Dorofeev

23 · B. Shaykhov

25 · S. Zhumagali

99 · B. Kereev

Yelimay Semey

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Tsuprikov

26 S. Tanasijevic

15 M. Mittendorfer

4 A. Zhumakhanov

20 A. Ashirbek

44 A. Tulubay

18 R. Orazov

17 A. Bakhtiyarov

89 China

9 R. Murillo

19 A. Zhaksylykov

Coach · Andrey Karpovich

Substitutes

5 · M. Belancic

7 · R. Murtazaev

8 · M. Omatay

10 · Z. Payruz

11 · I. Sviridov

14 · D. Palacio

23 · H. Ilic

77 · F. Placca

98 · D. Pozemin

Our number · yelimay semey winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Yelimay Semey a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atyrau v Yelimay Semey~~1.17 – 1.26

~~Last six in Premier League~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 38~~12 v 6

~~The market · Yelimay Semey win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · yelimay semey win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. The market has gone from 48% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atyrau win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Yelimay Semey win	39%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Atyrau or draw	61%	59%	+3
Atyrau clean sheet	29%	–	–
Yelimay Semey clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 11.4 7.0 3.0 1 10.6 12.6 8.1 3.4 2 6.0 7.5 4.7 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atyrau down, Yelimay Semey across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,098 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atyrau at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Yelimay Semey away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Atyrau, 1.26 for Yelimay Semey. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~YEL 1–2 ATY · YEL 3–2 ATY · ATY 2–1 YEL · ATY 1–0 YEL

Form · last six in Premier League

ATYRAU

LLWLLW0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

YELIMAY SEMEY

DLLWWL2–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	33	60
3	FC Astana	26	16	48
4	Aktobe	27	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	27	4	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	-1	37
8	Ulytau	27	-6	35
9	Zhenys	27	-7	32
10	Kaspiy	27	-8	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	-6	26
13	Irtysh	27	-11	26
14	Kaisar	27	-14	24
15	Altay	27	-14	23
16	Zhetysu	27	-19	22