Atyrau v Irtysh prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AtyrauDrawIrtysh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atyrau 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atyrau are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atyrau 45%, draw 28%, Irtysh 26%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Atyrau v IrtyshBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atyrau win45%

Draw28%

Irtysh win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueMunaishy Stadium

RefereeR. Omarov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atyrau

Irtysh

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atyrau winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market35%

Us45%

~~Market~~35%

We make Atyrau a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atyrau v Irtysh~~1.27 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 26~~12 v 14

~~The market · Atyrau win~~35% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atyrau win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atyrau win	45%	35%	+10
Draw	28%	28%	0
Irtysh win	26%	38%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	37%	50%	−13
Both teams to score	42%	56%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	63%	73%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	17%	30%	−13
Atyrau or draw	74%	62%	+12
Atyrau clean sheet	41%	–	–
Irtysh clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.5 10.6 4.6 1 14.9 12.7 5.7 2 9.3 8.1 3.6 3 3.9 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atyrau down, Irtysh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atyrau at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Irtysh away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Atyrau, 0.89 for Irtysh. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IRT 1–1 ATY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

ATYRAU

WLLWLD1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

IRTYSH

LWWLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24