Altay v Yelimay Semey prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AltayDrawYelimay Semey

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Yelimay Semey 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yelimay Semey are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Altay 33%, draw 25%, Yelimay Semey 42%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Altay v Yelimay SemeyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Altay win33%

Draw25%

Yelimay Semey win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueVostok Stadium

RefereeG. Chekhovsky

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altay

Yelimay Semey

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
13	Altay	28	−11	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yelimay semey winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Yelimay Semey a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altay v Yelimay Semey~~1.29 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 44~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altay win	33%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Yelimay Semey win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Altay or draw	58%	–	–
Altay clean sheet	23%	–	–
Yelimay Semey clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 9.6 6.9 3.4 1 8.3 11.6 8.7 4.3 2 5.2 7.6 5.6 2.8 3 2.3 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altay down, Yelimay Semey across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altay at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yelimay Semey away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Altay, 1.48 for Yelimay Semey. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~YEL 1–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

ALTAY

LWWLLD0–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

YELIMAY SEMEY

LWWLWW0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24