Altay v Atyrau

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Altay win at 42%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Altay 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–30
3. 1′KICK-OFF Altay v Atyrau
4. 33′Altay find the net on 33′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–7
5. 33′We said Altay at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–7
6. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Altay 1–0 Atyrau
7. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Altay win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
8. 34′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–7
9. 39′We said Altay at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
10. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Atyrau
11. 45′HALF-TIME Altay 1–0 Atyrau
12. 48′SECOND HALF Altay 1–0 Atyrau
13. 58′We said Altay at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
14. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Altay win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
15. 70′We said Altay at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
16. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Altay · On: E. Lobzhanidze · Off: D. Stoisavljevic
17. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Atyrau · On: K. Dorofeev · Off: M. Stanic
18. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Altay · On: S. Popov · Off: I. Dadaev
19. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Atyrau
20. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Altay
21. 78′We said Altay at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
22. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Altay
23. 79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Altay
24. 80′Altay are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 91–9–0
25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Altay · On: N. Jambor · Off: Z. Kukeev
26. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Altay win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
27. 82′Atyrau find the net on 81′. 1–0 · 93–7–0
28. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' S. Popov · Altay
29. 85′We said Altay at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
30. 85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' D. Maksimovic · Atyrau
31. 92′Atyrau find the net on 90′. 1–0 · 98–2–0
32. 92′We said Altay at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–2
33. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Altay 1–1 Atyrau
34. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Altay win: 42% at kick-off, 3% now
35. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Altay win 3%)
36. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Altay win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
37. FTFULL TIME Altay 1–1 Atyrau
38. FTAltay 1–1 Atyrau · Altay win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.