Aktobe v Ordabasy prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Aktobe 1–3 Ordabasy ORDABASY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ordabasy win~~38%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.585

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.429

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ordabasy win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ordabasy was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Aktobe v Ordabasy
7′Much as we predicted: Ordabasy was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–26–37
23′Aktobe find the net on 22′. 0–0 · 34–30–35
23′We said Ordabasy at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–22–14
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Aktobe 1–0 Ordabasy
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ordabasy win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Aktobe win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Ordabasy win 14%)
28′21′: D. Sosah on the scoresheet for Aktobe, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–13
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Aktobe
43′We said Ordabasy at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Aktobe
45′HALF-TIME Aktobe 1–0 Ordabasy
46′SECOND HALF Aktobe 1–0 Ordabasy
47′Ordabasy find the net on 47′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–40–30
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Aktobe
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Ordabasy win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Aktobe 1–1 Ordabasy
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ordabasy win: 38% at kick-off, 30% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Aktobe win 30%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Aktobe
54′We published Ordabasy at 38%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Aktobe 1–2 Ordabasy
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Ordabasy win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Ordabasy win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
55′A goal for Ordabasy on 54′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–21–73
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–21–73
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Ordabasy
58′S. Maliy scores for Ordabasy on 53′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
60′We published Ordabasy at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Aktobe · On: Pibe · Off: A. Tanzharikov Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ordabasy · On: T. Keita · Off: Everton Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ordabasy · On: E. Astanov · Off: Leo Natel Corrected
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ordabasy win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
70′We published Ordabasy at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ordabasy · On: U. Zhaksybaev · Off: G. Kilama Corrected
74′A goal for Aktobe on 73′. 1–2 · 2–15–83
78′A goal for Ordabasy on 77′. 1–2 · 1–13–86
78′We published Ordabasy at 38%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Aktobe 1–3 Ordabasy
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Ordabasy win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
79′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aktobe · On: G. Zhukov · Off: S. Miangue Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aktobe · On: Nani · Off: A. Shushenachev Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ordabasy · On: A. Nurymbet · Off: M. Capatina Corrected
83′We published Ordabasy at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Aktobe
90′Full time, 1–3. We called Ordabasy at 38% — that one lands. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Ordabasy
FTFULL TIME Aktobe 1–3 Ordabasy
FTAktobe 1–3 Ordabasy · Ordabasy win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ordabasy just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aktobe 37%, draw 25%, Ordabasy 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Aktobe v OrdabasyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aktobe win37%

Draw25%

Ordabasy win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueKoblandy Batyr Stadium

RefereeA. Kuchma

Line-ups

Aktobe

3-4-3

Ordabasy

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aktobe

Ordabasy

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aktobe

3-4-3

16 A. Zarutskiy

5 B. Kairov

18 I. Ordets

13 S. Miangue

31 A. Tanzharikov

6 J. Atanasov

21 P. Alvarez

12 D. Topalov

7 D. Sosah

11 A. Shushenachev

9 S. Ojo

Coach · Igor Cherevchenko

Substitutes

1 · I. Trofimets

4 · T. Kusyapov

14 · Pibe

17 · Nani

19 · V. Laturnus

20 · G. Zhukov

22 · E. Seydakhmet

27 · T. Dosmagambetov

29 · M. Kikbaev

57 · M. Umaniyazov

77 · G. Zaria

95 · A. Aymbetov

Ordabasy

5-4-1

1 B. Shayzada

22 S. Astanov

3 G. Kilama

25 S. Maliy

55 A. Amanovic

15 Z. Amir

9 Everton

77 D. Abagna

16 M. Capatina

19 Leo Natel

28 B. Johnsen

Coach · Andrei Martin

Substitutes

4 · S. Keiler

8 · U. Zhaksybaev

10 · E. Astanov

11 · Y. Vakulko

13 · K. Tolepbergen

14 · A. Turganov

20 · M. Toktybay

21 · B. Toktybay

23 · A. Nurymbet

24 · A. Abdukhalyk

27 · N. Serik

44 · T. Keita

Our number · ordabasy winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

38% The market47%

Us38%

~~Market~~47%

We make Ordabasy a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aktobe v Ordabasy~~1.35 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 45 v 61~~4 v 1

~~The market · Ordabasy win~~47% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ordabasy win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aktobe win	37%	27%	+10
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Ordabasy win	38%	47%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Aktobe or draw	62%	53%	+9
Aktobe clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ordabasy clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.5 9.4 6.2 2.8 1 9.2 11.8 8.2 3.8 2 6.0 8.1 5.5 2.5 3 2.7 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aktobe down, Ordabasy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,100 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aktobe at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ordabasy away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Aktobe, 1.37 for Ordabasy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORD 2–0 AKT · AKT 2–2 ORD · ORD 0–0 AKT · ORD 1–1 AKT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug

AKTOBE

WLWWDW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

ORDABASY

WWLWWW3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+33	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Aktobe	27	+9	45
5	Okzhetpes	27	+4	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	+1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	−1	37
8	Ulytau	27	−6	35
9	Zhenys	27	−7	32
10	Kaspiy	27	−8	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	−9	28
12	Atyrau	26	−7	26
13	Irtysh	27	−11	26
14	Kaisar	27	−14	24
15	Altay	27	−14	23
16	Zhetysu	27	−19	22