Aktobe v Kairat Almaty prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AktobeDrawKairat Almaty

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kairat Almaty 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kairat Almaty are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aktobe 32%, draw 25%, Kairat Almaty 43%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Aktobe v Kairat AlmatyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aktobe win32%

Draw25%

Kairat Almaty win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueKoblandy Batyr Stadium

RefereeB. Sariev

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aktobe

Kairat Almaty

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kairat almaty winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make Kairat Almaty a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aktobe v Kairat Almaty~~1.25 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 45 v 63~~5 v 2

~~The market · Kairat Almaty win~~47% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kairat Almaty win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aktobe win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Kairat Almaty win	43%	47%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Aktobe or draw	57%	53%	+4
Aktobe clean sheet	22%	–	–
Kairat Almaty clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 9.8 7.2 3.6 1 8.2 11.6 8.9 4.5 2 5.0 7.4 5.5 2.8 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aktobe down, Kairat Almaty across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aktobe at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kairat Almaty away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Aktobe, 1.51 for Kairat Almaty. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAI 1–0 AKT · KAI 1–0 AKT · AKT 1–2 KAI · KAI 2–0 AKT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

AKTOBE

LWWDWL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

KAIRAT ALMATY

WWLLWW3–0 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24