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Yelimay Semey 2 v Tobol 2

Yelimay Semey 2
2–3Full time
Tobol 2

1. Division · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 13:00
Yelimay Semey 2 2–3 Tobol 2 TOBOL 2 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tobol 2 win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.396

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tobol 2 win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Yelimay Semey 2 v Tobol 2
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Tobol 2 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 32–19–49
  4. 32′A goal for Tobol 2 on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  5. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Yelimay Semey 2 0–1 Tobol 2
  6. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Tobol 2 win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 33′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  8. 40′E. Musaev scores for Tobol 2 on 35′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–71
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Yelimay Semey 2 0–1 Tobol 2
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Yelimay Semey 2 0–1 Tobol 2
  11. 48′Tobol 2 score on 47′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  12. 48′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Yelimay Semey 2 0–2 Tobol 2
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Tobol 2 win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
  15. 50′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  16. 58′Yelimay Semey 2 find the net on 57′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–19–74
  17. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Yelimay Semey 2 1–2 Tobol 2
  18. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Tobol 2 win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
  19. 61′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
  20. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Tobol 2 win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
  21. 73′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  22. 80′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
  23. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Tobol 2 win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  24. 87′A goal for Tobol 2 on 87′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  25. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Yelimay Semey 2 1–3 Tobol 2
  26. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Tobol 2 win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
  27. 88′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  28. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  29. 93′Yelimay Semey 2 score on 90′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97
  30. 93′We said Tobol 2 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–3 · 0–3–97
  31. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Yelimay Semey 2 2–3 Tobol 2
  32. 95′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–2–98
  33. FTFULL TIME Yelimay Semey 2 2–3 Tobol 2
  34. FTYelimay Semey 2 2–3 Tobol 2 · Tobol 2 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tobol 2 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yelimay Semey 2 32%, draw 19%, Tobol 2 49%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Yelimay Semey 2 v Tobol 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Yelimay Semey 2 win32%
Draw19%
Tobol 2 win49%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yelimay Semey 2

Tobol 2

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

Last match: 15 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Tobol 225−1420
14Yelimay Semey 225−3712

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tobol 2 winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Tobol 2 a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Yelimay Semey 2 v Tobol 21.75 – 2.23
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 AugW0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 12 v 2014 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yelimay Semey 2 win32%––
Draw19%––
Tobol 2 win49%––
Over 2.5 goals75%––
Both teams to score72%––
Over 1.5 goals89%––
Over 3.5 goals56%––
Yelimay Semey 2 or draw51%––
Yelimay Semey 2 clean sheet12%––
Tobol 2 clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%
0123450 4.9 4.7 3.4 1 4.1 6.9 7.8 5.7 3.2 2 3.1 6.3 6.7 4.9 2.7 3 3.7 3.9 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Yelimay Semey 2 down, Tobol 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsTOB 1–1 YEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug

YELIMAY SEMEY 2

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 1–7

TOBOL 2

LLWWDW1–3 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 4–4 · 4–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Shakhter Karagandy25+5765
2Sport Academy Kairat25+5660
3Turan Turkistan25+3154
4Akademiya Ontustik25+643
5Astana II25−136
6Taraz25+334
7Jaiyq25−832
8Arys25−1230
9Khan Tengri25−1429
10Kaspij Aktau 225−1128
11Ekibastuz25−2427
12Aktobe Jas25−3224
13Tobol 225−1420
14Yelimay Semey 225−3712

The competition's standings before kick-off.