Turan Turkistan v Shakhter Karagandy prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31

Turan Turkistan 1–0 Shakhter Karagandy SHAKHTER KARAGANDY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shakhter Karagandy win~~40%

~~The market said~~11%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.632

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shakhter Karagandy win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shakhter Karagandy was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Turan Turkistan v Shakhter Karagandy
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shakhter Karagandy win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Turan Turkistan 0–0 Shakhter Karagandy
46′SECOND HALF Turan Turkistan 0–0 Shakhter Karagandy
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Shakhter Karagandy win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
56′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 26–46–28
56′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–46–28
64′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–53–24
70′Turan Turkistan find the net on 70′. 0–0 · 19–60–21
70′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Turan Turkistan 1–0 Shakhter Karagandy
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Shakhter Karagandy win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Turan Turkistan win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Shakhter Karagandy win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Turan Turkistan 1–0 Shakhter Karagandy
FTTuran Turkistan 1–0 Shakhter Karagandy · Shakhter Karagandy win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shakhter Karagandy just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Turan Turkistan 36%, draw 24%, Shakhter Karagandy 40%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Turan Turkistan v Shakhter KaragandyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Turan Turkistan win36%

Draw24%

Shakhter Karagandy win40%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueTurkestan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Turan Turkistan

Shakhter Karagandy

7Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

Last match: 8 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shakhter karagandy winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market11%

Us40%

~~Market~~11%

We make Shakhter Karagandy a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 11%. We are 29 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Turan Turkistan v Shakhter Karagandy~~1.28 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 51 v 65~~3 v 1

~~The market · Shakhter Karagandy win~~11% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shakhter Karagandy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 11% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Turan Turkistan win	36%	71%	−35
Draw	24%	18%	+6
Shakhter Karagandy win	40%	11%	+29
Over 2.5 goals	49%	62%	−13
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Turan Turkistan or draw	60%	89%	−29
Turan Turkistan clean sheet	26%	–	–
Shakhter Karagandy clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.8 10.5 6.6 3.1 1 9.8 11.2 8.1 3.8 2 5.8 7.6 5.2 2.4 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Turan Turkistan down, Shakhter Karagandy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Turan Turkistan at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Shakhter Karagandy away: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Turan Turkistan, 1.37 for Shakhter Karagandy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SHA 1–0 TUR · TUR 2–1 SHA · SHA 0–2 TUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug

TURAN TURKISTAN

LWWWWD0–4 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

SHAKHTER KARAGANDY

WWWWDW4–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	24	+58	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	24	+54	57
3	Turan Turkistan	24	+30	51
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	+6	43
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
6	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
7	Taraz	24	−2	31
8	Arys	25	−12	30
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	24	−6	28
11	Ekibastuz	24	−22	27
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24
13	Tobol 2	25	−14	20
14	Yelimay Semey 2	25	−37	12