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Tobol 2 v Jaiyq
Tobol 2
Jaiyq1. Division · THU 15 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Tobol 2 win at 43%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Tobol 2 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Tobol 2 v Jaiyq
- 26′Tobol 2 score on 25′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 26′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tobol 2 1–0 Jaiyq
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Tobol 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
- 27′24′: E. Musaev on the scoresheet for Tobol 2, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 31′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
- 45′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 45′HALF-TIME Tobol 2 2–0 Jaiyq
- 46′Tobol 2 find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Tobol 2 2–0 Jaiyq
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Tobol 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
- 46′SECOND HALF Tobol 2 2–0 Jaiyq
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Tobol 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
- 54′A goal for Tobol 2 on 54′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Tobol 2 3–0 Jaiyq
- 55′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 56′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 58′Jaiyq score on 57′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 95–5–1
- 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–5–1
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tobol 2 3–1 Jaiyq
- 80′Tobol 2 find the net on 80′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Tobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq
- 81′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 82′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 85′Tobol 2 ahead on 79′ through N. Nurgeldinov. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Tobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq
- FTTobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq · Tobol 2 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassTobol 2 are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Tobol 2 43%, draw 23%, Jaiyq 34%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
Tobol 2 win43%
Jaiyq win34%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 12:00
RoundMatchday 25
Match timeline
All events
Tobol 2MIN
JaiyqEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Tobol 2
Jaiyq
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Tobol 2 a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol 2 win | 43% | – | – |
| Draw | 23% | – | – |
| Jaiyq win | 34% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – | – |
| Tobol 2 or draw | 66% | – | – |
| Tobol 2 clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Jaiyq clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2026Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug
TOBOL 2
JAIYQ
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 24 | +58 | 65 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 24 | +54 | 57 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 24 | +30 | 51 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 24 | +7 | 43 |
| 5 | Astana II | 24 | −7 | 33 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 24 | −5 | 32 |
| 7 | Taraz | 24 | −2 | 31 |
| 8 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 24 | −6 | 28 |
| 9 | Arys | 24 | −13 | 27 |
| 10 | Ekibastuz | 24 | −22 | 27 |
| 11 | Khan Tengri | 24 | −15 | 26 |
| 12 | Aktobe Jas | 24 | −31 | 24 |
| 13 | Tobol 2 | 24 | −17 | 17 |
| 14 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 24 | −31 | 12 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Shakhter Karagandy
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Akademiya Ontustik
Astana II
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Arys
Ekibastuz
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2