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Tobol 2 v Jaiyq

Tobol 2
4–1Full time
Jaiyq

1. Division · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:30
Tobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq TOBOL 2 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tobol 2 win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tobol 2 win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tobol 2 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tobol 2 v Jaiyq
  4. 26′Tobol 2 score on 25′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  5. 26′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  6. 26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tobol 2 1–0 Jaiyq
  7. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Tobol 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 27′24′: E. Musaev on the scoresheet for Tobol 2, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  10. 31′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
  11. 45′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Tobol 2 2–0 Jaiyq
  13. 46′Tobol 2 find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  14. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Tobol 2 2–0 Jaiyq
  15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Tobol 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Tobol 2 2–0 Jaiyq
  17. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Tobol 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  18. 54′A goal for Tobol 2 on 54′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Tobol 2 3–0 Jaiyq
  20. 55′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  21. 56′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  22. 58′Jaiyq score on 57′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 95–5–1
  23. 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–5–1
  24. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tobol 2 3–1 Jaiyq
  25. 80′Tobol 2 find the net on 80′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Tobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq
  27. 81′We said Tobol 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  28. 82′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 85′Tobol 2 ahead on 79′ through N. Nurgeldinov. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. FTFULL TIME Tobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq
  31. FTTobol 2 4–1 Jaiyq · Tobol 2 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tobol 2 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tobol 2 43%, draw 23%, Jaiyq 34%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Tobol 2 v JaiyqBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Tobol 2 win43%
Draw23%
Jaiyq win34%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tobol 2

Jaiyq

7Days since last match6
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Jaiyq24−532
13Tobol 224−1717

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tobol 2 winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 10 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Tobol 2 a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tobol 2 v Jaiyq1.60 – 1.37
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 AugW2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 17 v 3213 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 07:2115 OCT 11:45
Our probability · tobol 2 win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tobol 2 win43%––
Draw23%––
Jaiyq win34%––
Over 2.5 goals56%––
Both teams to score58%––
Over 1.5 goals78%––
Over 3.5 goals35%––
Tobol 2 or draw66%––
Tobol 2 clean sheet26%––
Jaiyq clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.9 7.8 4.9 2.3 1 9.0 10.4 7.4 3.5 2 6.6 8.6 5.8 2.7 3 3.5 4.6 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tobol 2 down, Jaiyq across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsJAI 1–0 TOB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

TOBOL 2

LLLWWD3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 4–4

JAIYQ

DLWLDD0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Shakhter Karagandy24+5865
2Sport Academy Kairat24+5457
3Turan Turkistan24+3051
4Akademiya Ontustik24+743
5Astana II24−733
6Jaiyq24−532
7Taraz24−231
8Kaspij Aktau 224−628
9Arys24−1327
10Ekibastuz24−2227
11Khan Tengri24−1526
12Aktobe Jas24−3124
13Tobol 224−1717
14Yelimay Semey 224−3112

The competition's standings before kick-off.