Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › 1. Division › Taraz v Kaspij Aktau 2

Back
Kazakhstan flag

Taraz v Kaspij Aktau 2

Taraz
5–0Full time
Kaspij Aktau 2

1. Division · FRI 16 OCT · Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02
Taraz 5–0 Kaspij Aktau 2 TARAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Taraz win50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Taraz win at 50%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Taraz v Kaspij Aktau 2
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Taraz was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
  4. 26′A goal for Taraz on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  5. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Taraz 1–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  6. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Taraz win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
  7. 27′We published Taraz at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
  9. 32′An own goal by Kaspij Aktau 2's N. Syilagan on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Taraz 1–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Taraz 1–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  12. 51′Taraz score on 50′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Taraz 2–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  14. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Taraz win: 50% at kick-off, 95% now
  15. 52′We published Taraz at 50%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  16. 53′Taraz find the net on 52′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  17. 53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Taraz 3–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  19. 57′We published Taraz at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Taraz win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  21. 66′A goal for Taraz on 65′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Taraz 4–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  23. 67′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 92′Taraz score on 90′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Taraz 5–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  26. 93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  27. FTFULL TIME Taraz 5–0 Kaspij Aktau 2
  28. FTTaraz 5–0 Kaspij Aktau 2 · Taraz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Taraz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Taraz 50%, draw 23%, Kaspij Aktau 2 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Taraz v Kaspij Aktau 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Taraz win50%
Draw23%
Kaspij Aktau 2 win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueCentral Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Taraz

Kaspij Aktau 2

7Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

Last match: 8 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Taraz24−231
10Kaspij Aktau 224−628

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · taraz winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
50% The market–
Us50%

We make Taraz a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Taraz v Kaspij Aktau 21.64 – 1.11
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 AugW1 D4 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 31 v 287 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Taraz win50%––
Draw23%––
Kaspij Aktau 2 win27%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score52%––
Over 1.5 goals75%––
Over 3.5 goals30%––
Taraz or draw73%––
Taraz clean sheet34%––
Kaspij Aktau 2 clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%
0123450 6.1 8.0 4.0 1 11.3 10.7 6.3 2.4 2 8.5 9.1 5.1 3 4.7 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Taraz down, Kaspij Aktau 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsKAS 1–0 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

TARAZ

DWLDDD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

KASPIJ AKTAU 2

DLLLLW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 6–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Shakhter Karagandy24+5865
2Sport Academy Kairat24+5457
3Turan Turkistan24+3051
4Akademiya Ontustik25+643
5Astana II25−136
6Jaiyq25−832
7Taraz24−231
8Arys25−1230
9Khan Tengri25−1429
10Kaspij Aktau 224−628
11Ekibastuz24−2227
12Aktobe Jas25−3224
13Tobol 225−1420
14Yelimay Semey 225−3712

The competition's standings before kick-off.