Sport Academy Kairat v Ekibastuz prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 14:01

Sport Academy Kairat 2–0 Ekibastuz SPORT ACADEMY KAIRAT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sport Academy Kairat win~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.031

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sport Academy Kairat win at 86%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sport Academy Kairat was 86% before kick-off and our model makes it 87% now. 0–0 · 87–8–5
1′KICK-OFF Sport Academy Kairat v Ekibastuz
13′Sport Academy Kairat score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 95–4–1
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sport Academy Kairat 1–0 Ekibastuz
16′14′: A. Toleukhan on the scoresheet for Sport Academy Kairat, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Sport Academy Kairat 1–0 Ekibastuz
46′SECOND HALF Sport Academy Kairat 1–0 Ekibastuz
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Sport Academy Kairat win: 86% at kick-off, 96% now
84′PENALTY MISSED · 84' Sport Academy Kairat
90′We published Sport Academy Kairat at 86%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
91′Sport Academy Kairat find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′We published Sport Academy Kairat at 86%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Sport Academy Kairat 2–0 Ekibastuz
FTFULL TIME Sport Academy Kairat 2–0 Ekibastuz
FTSport Academy Kairat 2–0 Ekibastuz · Sport Academy Kairat win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sport Academy Kairat are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sport Academy Kairat 86%, draw 8%, Ekibastuz 6%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sport Academy Kairat v EkibastuzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Sport Academy Kairat win86%

Draw8%

Ekibastuz win6%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueAlmaty Ortalyk Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sport Academy Kairat

Ekibastuz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sport Academy Kairat	24	+54	57
11	Ekibastuz	24	−22	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sport academy kairat winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

86% The market–

Us86%

We make Sport Academy Kairat an 86% chance to win. The model expects 3.7–0.8, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sport Academy Kairat v Ekibastuz~~3.71 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 57 v 27~~2 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sport Academy Kairat win	86%	–	–
Draw	8%	–	–
Ekibastuz win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	65%	–	–
Sport Academy Kairat or draw	94%	–	–
Sport Academy Kairat clean sheet	44%	–	–
Ekibastuz clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 8.6%

0123450 1 4.6 3.5 2 7.4 6.2 2.7 3 8.6 7.1 3.1 4 7.7 6.3 2.7 5 5.8 4.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Sport Academy Kairat down, Ekibastuz across0–5 goals a side shown (81.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.30 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sport Academy Kairat at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ekibastuz away: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.71 goals for Sport Academy Kairat, 0.85 for Ekibastuz. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.30

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EKI 2–4 SPO · EKI 2–3 SPO · SPO 7–0 EKI · EKI 1–4 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

SPORT ACADEMY KAIRAT

WWWDWD4–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

EKIBASTUZ

LLLLLD2–3 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–7 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	24	+58	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	24	+54	57
3	Turan Turkistan	24	+30	51
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	+6	43
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
6	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
7	Taraz	24	−2	31
8	Arys	25	−12	30
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	24	−6	28
11	Ekibastuz	24	−22	27
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24
13	Tobol 2	25	−14	20
14	Yelimay Semey 2	25	−37	12