Shakhter Karagandy v Sport Academy Kairat

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shakhter Karagandy win at 54%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Shakhter Karagandy v Sport Academy Kairat
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Shakhter Karagandy was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–24
4. 4′Sport Academy Kairat find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–25–47
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Shakhter Karagandy 0–1 Sport Academy Kairat
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 29% now
7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Sport Academy Kairat win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Shakhter Karagandy win 53%)
8. 5′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–47
9. 19′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 21–26–53
12. 34′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
13. 36′A goal for Shakhter Karagandy on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–33–22
14. 36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Shakhter Karagandy 1–1 Sport Academy Kairat
15. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
16. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Shakhter Karagandy win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sport Academy Kairat win 54%)
17. 40′A. Litosh scores for Shakhter Karagandy on 37′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–35–22
18. 44′Sport Academy Kairat score on 44′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 15–27–58
19. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Shakhter Karagandy 1–2 Sport Academy Kairat
20. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 15% now
21. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Sport Academy Kairat win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Shakhter Karagandy win 42%)
22. 45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 15–27–58
23. 45′HALF-TIME Shakhter Karagandy 1–2 Sport Academy Kairat
24. 46′45′: A. Toleukhan on the scoresheet for Sport Academy Kairat, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 15–27–59
25. 46′SECOND HALF Shakhter Karagandy 1–2 Sport Academy Kairat
26. 47′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
27. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
28. 59′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–65
29. 72′We said Shakhter Karagandy at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
30. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
31. 79′Shakhter Karagandy find the net on 79′. 2–2. 2–2 · 17–73–10
32. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Shakhter Karagandy 2–2 Sport Academy Kairat
33. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 17% now
34. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Sport Academy Kairat win 83%)
35. 80′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 16–75–9
36. 83′A goal for Sport Academy Kairat on 83′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–11–88
37. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Shakhter Karagandy 2–3 Sport Academy Kairat
38. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Shakhter Karagandy win: 54% at kick-off, 1% now
39. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Sport Academy Kairat win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 81%)
40. 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–10–90
41. FTFULL TIME Shakhter Karagandy 2–3 Sport Academy Kairat
42. FTShakhter Karagandy 2–3 Sport Academy Kairat · Shakhter Karagandy win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.