Khan Tengri v Aktobe Jas prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 15:30

Khan Tengri 2–1 Aktobe Jas KHAN TENGRI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Khan Tengri win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khan Tengri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khan Tengri 59%, draw 17%, Aktobe Jas 23%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Khan Tengri v Aktobe JasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Khan Tengri win59%

Draw17%

Aktobe Jas win23%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khan Tengri

Aktobe Jas

6Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Khan Tengri	24	−15	26
12	Aktobe Jas	24	−31	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khan tengri winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Khan Tengri a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khan Tengri v Aktobe Jas~~2.55 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 24~~11 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khan Tengri win	59%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Aktobe Jas win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Khan Tengri or draw	77%	–	–
Khan Tengri clean sheet	22%	–	–
Aktobe Jas clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 3.2 2.1 1 4.9 6.3 5.0 2.6 2 5.6 8.1 6.1 3.2 3 4.6 6.8 5.1 2.6 4 3.0 4.3 3.3 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Khan Tengri down, Aktobe Jas across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,088 1. Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.1% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings since 2023, in every competition we cover: 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khan Tengri at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aktobe Jas away: 2.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Khan Tengri, 1.55 for Aktobe Jas. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AKT 5–2 KHA · AKT 3–1 KHA · KHA 2–0 AKT · AKT 0–2 KHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

KHAN TENGRI

WWLDLD4–3 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

AKTOBE JAS

WWLLLD5–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 4–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	24	+58	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	24	+54	57
3	Turan Turkistan	24	+30	51
4	Akademiya Ontustik	24	+7	43
5	Astana II	24	−7	33
6	Jaiyq	24	−5	32
7	Taraz	24	−2	31
8	Kaspij Aktau 2	24	−6	28
9	Arys	24	−13	27
10	Ekibastuz	24	−22	27
11	Khan Tengri	24	−15	26
12	Aktobe Jas	24	−31	24
13	Tobol 2	24	−17	17
14	Yelimay Semey 2	24	−31	12