Kaspij Aktau 2 v Khan Tengri prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 13:18

Kaspij Aktau 2 2–3 Khan Tengri KASPIJ AKTAU 2 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kaspij Aktau 2 win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kaspij Aktau 2 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaspij Aktau 2 52%, draw 21%, Khan Tengri 27%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Kaspij Aktau 2 v Khan TengriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Kaspij Aktau 2 win52%

Draw21%

Khan Tengri win27%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaspij Aktau 2

Khan Tengri

6Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

Last match: 15 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	25	−11	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaspij aktau 2 winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Kaspij Aktau 2 a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaspij Aktau 2 v Khan Tengri~~1.84 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 29~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kaspij Aktau 2 win

Published at 55%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaspij Aktau 2 win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Khan Tengri win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Kaspij Aktau 2 or draw	73%	–	–
Kaspij Aktau 2 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Khan Tengri clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.3 6.6 3.6 1 9.4 9.7 6.3 2.6 2 7.8 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.8 5.7 3.5 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaspij Aktau 2 down, Khan Tengri across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaspij Aktau 2 at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Khan Tengri away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Kaspij Aktau 2, 1.23 for Khan Tengri. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KHA 2–2 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug

KASPIJ AKTAU 2

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 6–0 · 0–5

KHAN TENGRI

WLDLDW3–0 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	25	+57	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	25	+56	60
3	Turan Turkistan	25	+31	54
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	+6	43
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
6	Taraz	25	+3	34
7	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
8	Arys	25	−12	30
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	25	−11	28
11	Ekibastuz	25	−24	27
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24
13	Tobol 2	25	−14	20
14	Yelimay Semey 2	25	−37	12