Jaiyq v Arys prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 13:00

Jaiyq 1–2 Arys JAIYQ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jaiyq win~~49%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jaiyq win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jaiyq was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Jaiyq v Arys
5′A goal for Arys on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–25–52
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Jaiyq 0–1 Arys
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Jaiyq win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Arys win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Jaiyq win 48%)
6′We said Jaiyq at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–52
19′We said Jaiyq at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Jaiyq win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 15–26–58
36′We said Jaiyq at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
45′HALF-TIME Jaiyq 0–1 Arys
46′SECOND HALF Jaiyq 0–1 Arys
51′We said Jaiyq at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Jaiyq win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
62′Jaiyq score on 61′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–54–17
62′We said Jaiyq at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Jaiyq 1–1 Arys
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Jaiyq win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Arys win 71%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Jaiyq win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Jaiyq win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
85′PENALTY MISSED · 85' Arys
90′Arys find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–95
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Jaiyq 1–2 Arys
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Arys win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 93%)
91′We said Jaiyq at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Jaiyq 1–2 Arys
FTJaiyq 1–2 Arys · Jaiyq win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jaiyq are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jaiyq 49%, draw 25%, Arys 26%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Jaiyq v ArysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Jaiyq win49%

Draw25%

Arys win26%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jaiyq

Arys

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
8	Arys	25	−12	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jaiyq winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

49% The market45%

Us49%

~~Market~~45%

We make Jaiyq a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jaiyq v Arys~~1.44 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 32 v 30~~7 v 8

~~The market · Jaiyq win~~45% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jaiyq win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jaiyq win	49%	45%	+4
Draw	25%	25%	0
Arys win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	55%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	58%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	32%	−10
Jaiyq or draw	74%	70%	+4
Jaiyq clean sheet	40%	–	–
Arys clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 9.1 9.7 4.1 1 14.2 11.4 5.7 2 9.5 8.6 4.1 3 4.6 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jaiyq down, Arys across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jaiyq at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Arys away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Jaiyq, 0.94 for Arys. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ARY 0–1 JAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug

JAIYQ

LWLDDL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

ARYS

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	25	+57	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	25	+56	60
3	Turan Turkistan	25	+31	54
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	+6	43
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
6	Taraz	25	+3	34
7	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
8	Arys	25	−12	30
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	25	−11	28
11	Ekibastuz	25	−24	27
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24
13	Tobol 2	25	−14	20
14	Yelimay Semey 2	25	−37	12