Ekibastuz v Taraz prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 13:00

Ekibastuz 2–3 Taraz TARAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Taraz win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.460

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.498

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Taraz win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Ekibastuz v Taraz
2′Little has changed for our model: Taraz 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 33–22–45
2′Taraz find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–18–67
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Ekibastuz 0–1 Taraz
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 67% now
3′We said Taraz at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 15–18–67
3′A goal for Taraz on 3′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–9–85
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Ekibastuz 0–2 Taraz
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
4′We said Taraz at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–2 · 5–9–86
16′Ekibastuz score on 16′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 13–19–68
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Ekibastuz 1–2 Taraz
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 68% now
17′20′: A. Orazaly on the scoresheet for Ekibastuz, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 13–19–68
30′We said Taraz at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 11–20–70
33′Ekibastuz find the net on 33′. 2–2. 2–2 · 30–31–39
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ekibastuz 2–2 Taraz
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 39% now
34′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 30–31–39
40′Ekibastuz level it on 38′ through A. Mukhit. 2–2. 2–2 · 29–33–38
45′HALF-TIME Ekibastuz 2–2 Taraz
46′SECOND HALF Ekibastuz 2–2 Taraz
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Taraz win 37%)
53′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 26–40–33
62′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 23–48–29
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 19–57–24
77′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 15–67–18
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
82′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 10–78–12
85′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 7–84–9
88′Taraz are down to ten from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 6–88–7
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Taraz
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Taraz win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
92′We said Taraz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–94–4
FTFULL TIME Ekibastuz 2–3 Taraz
FTEkibastuz 2–3 Taraz · Taraz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Taraz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ekibastuz 33%, draw 22%, Taraz 45%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ekibastuz v TarazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Ekibastuz win33%

Draw22%

Taraz win45%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ekibastuz

Taraz

6Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Taraz	25	+3	34
11	Ekibastuz	25	−24	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · taraz winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Taraz a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ekibastuz v Taraz~~1.39 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 34~~11 v 6

~~The market · Taraz win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Taraz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ekibastuz win	33%	34%	−1
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Taraz win	45%	43%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	63%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Ekibastuz or draw	55%	57%	−2
Ekibastuz clean sheet	20%	–	–
Taraz clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.3 8.7 6.6 3.7 1 7.4 9.9 8.7 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.3 5.9 3.3 3 2.2 3.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ekibastuz down, Taraz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ekibastuz at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Taraz away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Ekibastuz, 1.68 for Taraz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TAR 3–0 EKI · TAR 1–0 EKI · EKI 4–1 TAR · EKI 1–1 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 27 Aug

EKIBASTUZ

LLLLDL2–4 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–7 · 1–1 · 0–2

TARAZ

WLDDDW3–1 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	25	+57	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	25	+56	60
3	Turan Turkistan	25	+31	54
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	+6	43
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
6	Taraz	25	+3	34
7	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
8	Arys	25	−12	30
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	25	−11	28
11	Ekibastuz	25	−24	27
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24
13	Tobol 2	25	−14	20
14	Yelimay Semey 2	25	−37	12