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Ekibastuz v Khan Tengri

Ekibastuz

1–1Full time

Khan Tengri

1. Division · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:31

Ekibastuz 1–1 Khan Tengri EKIBASTUZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ekibastuz win~~46%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.951

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.925

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ekibastuz win46%

Draw21%

Khan Tengri win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ekibastuz winPublished 9 Oct 11:02

46% The market41%

Us46%

~~Market~~41%

We make Ekibastuz a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ekibastuz win	46%	41%	+5
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Khan Tengri win	34%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	73%	−6
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Ekibastuz or draw	66%	63%	+4
Ekibastuz clean sheet	22%	–	–
Khan Tengri clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.8 5.8 4.0 2.1 1 6.8 8.7 7.1 3.8 2 5.7 8.5 6.5 3.4 3 3.5 5.3 4.1 2.2 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ekibastuz down, Khan Tengri across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 1. Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ekibastuz at home: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Khan Tengri away: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Ekibastuz, 1.58 for Khan Tengri. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~KHA 1–3 EKI · KHA 4–0 EKI · EKI 2–0 KHA · EKI 2–1 KHA

Form · last six in 1. Division

EKIBASTUZ

WLLLLL3–1 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–7

KHAN TENGRI

DWWLDL0–0 · 4–3 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	24	+58	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	23	+54	56
3	Turan Turkistan	23	+30	50
4	Akademiya Ontustik	24	+7	43
5	Astana II	24	−7	33
6	Jaiyq	23	−5	31
7	Taraz	23	−2	30
8	Kaspij Aktau 2	24	−6	28
9	Arys	24	−13	27
10	Ekibastuz	23	−22	26
11	Khan Tengri	23	−15	25
12	Aktobe Jas	24	−31	24
13	Tobol 2	24	−17	17
14	Yelimay Semey 2	24	−31	12