Arys v Akademiya Ontustik prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:00

Arys 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik AKADEMIYA ONTUSTIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akademiya Ontustik win~~41%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.631

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Akademiya Ontustik win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Arys v Akademiya Ontustik
2′Much as we predicted: Akademiya Ontustik was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
22′Arys find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–15
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Arys 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Akademiya Ontustik win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Arys win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Akademiya Ontustik win 15%)
23′Arys ahead on 21′ through E. Kuralbaev. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–15
25′We said Akademiya Ontustik at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 63–22–15
27′We said Akademiya Ontustik at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–14
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Akademiya Ontustik win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Arys 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik
46′SECOND HALF Arys 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik
48′We said Akademiya Ontustik at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
64′A goal for Arys on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
64′We said Akademiya Ontustik at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Arys 2–0 Akademiya Ontustik
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Akademiya Ontustik win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Arys
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Akademiya Ontustik win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Akademiya Ontustik win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Arys 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik
FTArys 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik · Akademiya Ontustik win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akademiya Ontustik are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arys 36%, draw 23%, Akademiya Ontustik 41%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Arys v Akademiya OntustikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Arys win36%

Draw23%

Akademiya Ontustik win41%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arys

Akademiya Ontustik

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Akademiya Ontustik	24	+7	43
9	Arys	24	−13	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akademiya ontustik winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

41% The market52%

Us41%

~~Market~~52%

We make Akademiya Ontustik a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arys v Akademiya Ontustik~~1.39 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 43~~9 v 4

~~The market · Akademiya Ontustik win~~52% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · akademiya ontustik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arys win	36%	25%	+11
Draw	23%	23%	+1
Akademiya Ontustik win	41%	52%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Arys or draw	59%	48%	+11
Arys clean sheet	23%	–	–
Akademiya Ontustik clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.4 9.2 6.3 3.2 1 8.5 10.7 8.3 4.2 2 5.4 7.8 5.7 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arys down, Akademiya Ontustik across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,088 1. Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.1% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings since 2021, in every competition we cover: 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arys at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Akademiya Ontustik away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Arys, 1.50 for Akademiya Ontustik. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AKA 1–2 ARY · ARY 3–3 AKA · AKA 2–5 ARY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

ARYS

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

AKADEMIYA ONTUSTIK

WWWWDL3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	24	+58	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	24	+54	57
3	Turan Turkistan	24	+30	51
4	Akademiya Ontustik	24	+7	43
5	Astana II	24	−7	33
6	Jaiyq	24	−5	32
7	Taraz	24	−2	31
8	Kaspij Aktau 2	24	−6	28
9	Arys	24	−13	27
10	Ekibastuz	24	−22	27
11	Khan Tengri	24	−15	26
12	Aktobe Jas	24	−31	24
13	Tobol 2	24	−17	17
14	Yelimay Semey 2	24	−31	12