Aktobe Jas v Astana II prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 13:00

Aktobe Jas 3–6 Astana II ASTANA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Astana II win~~47%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.432

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.522

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Astana II win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Astana II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 36–17–47
1′KICK-OFF Aktobe Jas v Astana II
10′Astana II score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–16–65
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Aktobe Jas 0–1 Astana II
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 65% now
11′We published Astana II at 47%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 20–16–65
16′Astana II find the net on 16′. 0–2. 0–2 · 9–10–81
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Aktobe Jas 0–2 Astana II
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 81% now
17′We published Astana II at 47%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–2 · 9–10–81
19′A goal for Astana II on 18′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 3–5–92
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Aktobe Jas 0–3 Astana II
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
20′We published Astana II at 47%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–3 · 3–5–92
22′A. Akhmetov scores for Astana II on 24′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 3–5–92
40′We published Astana II at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–3 · 2–4–95
45′Goals are coming at about the 5.2 we expected. 0–3 · 1–3–95
45′HALF-TIME Aktobe Jas 0–3 Astana II
46′SECOND HALF Aktobe Jas 0–3 Astana II
47′Aktobe Jas score on 47′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 4–9–87
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Aktobe Jas 1–3 Astana II
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
48′We published Astana II at 47%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–3 · 4–9–87
52′Aktobe Jas find the net on 51′. 2–3. 2–3 · 12–20–68
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Aktobe Jas 2–3 Astana II
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 68% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+8' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
57′A goal for Astana II on 56′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 3–8–89
57′6 goals already, more than the 5.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 3–8–89
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Aktobe Jas 2–4 Astana II
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 89% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Astana II win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Aktobe Jas 2–4 Astana II
FTAktobe Jas 3–6 Astana II · Astana II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Astana II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aktobe Jas 36%, draw 17%, Astana II 47%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 83%.

The AI’s read on Aktobe Jas v Astana IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Aktobe Jas win36%

Draw17%

Astana II win47%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aktobe Jas

Astana II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · the Kazakh 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · astana ii winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 20 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

47% The market42%

Us47%

~~Market~~42%

We make Astana II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aktobe Jas v Astana II~~2.42 – 2.79

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 36~~12 v 5

~~The market · Astana II win~~42% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Astana II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aktobe Jas win	36%	38%	−2
Draw	17%	20%	−3
Astana II win	47%	42%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	83%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	65%	+9
Aktobe Jas or draw	53%	58%	−5
Aktobe Jas clean sheet	7%	–	–
Astana II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.0%

0123450 2.1 2.3 2.0 1 3.8 5.2 4.6 3.1 2 4.6 6.0 5.3 3.6 2.13 3.6 4.7 4.1 2.9 4 2.2 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aktobe Jas down, Astana II across0–5 goals a side shown (88.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aktobe Jas at home: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Astana II away: 0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Aktobe Jas, 2.79 for Astana II. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AST 2–2 AKT · AKT 4–1 AST · AST 2–3 AKT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

AKTOBE JAS

WLLLDL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 4–4 · 1–2

ASTANA II

LWDWLW0–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 7–1 · 0–6 · 7–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhter Karagandy	25	+57	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	25	+56	60
3	Turan Turkistan	25	+31	54
4	Akademiya Ontustik	25	+6	43
5	Astana II	25	−1	36
6	Taraz	25	+3	34
7	Jaiyq	25	−8	32
8	Arys	25	−12	30
9	Khan Tengri	25	−14	29
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	25	−11	28
11	Ekibastuz	25	−24	27
12	Aktobe Jas	25	−32	24
13	Tobol 2	25	−14	20
14	Yelimay Semey 2	25	−37	12