Shabab Al Ordon v Al Wihdat prediction · League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Shabab Al Ordon 0–1 Al Wihdat AL WIHDAT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Wihdat win~~60%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.248

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Wihdat win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Wihdat was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 15–26–60
1′KICK-OFF Shabab Al Ordon v Al Wihdat
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 59% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
45′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 14–41–45
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Shabab Al Ordon 0–0 Al Wihdat
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 45% now
46′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 14–42–44
46′SECOND HALF Shabab Al Ordon 0–0 Al Wihdat
50′PENALTY MISSED · 45+4' Al Wihdat
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Al Wihdat win 44%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
54′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 13–47–39
62′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 12–54–34
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
68′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 10–61–29
73′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 9–67–24
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
77′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 7–73–19
81′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 6–80–14
85′We said Al Wihdat at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 4–87–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 9% now
88′Al Wihdat score on 87′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
88′We published Al Wihdat at 60%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Shabab Al Ordon 0–1 Al Wihdat
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Al Wihdat win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Al Wihdat win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 89%)
FTFULL TIME Shabab Al Ordon 0–1 Al Wihdat
FTShabab Al Ordon 0–1 Al Wihdat · Al Wihdat win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Wihdat are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shabab Al Ordon 15%, draw 25%, Al Wihdat 60%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Shabab Al Ordon v Al WihdatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shabab Al Ordon win15%

Draw25%

Al Wihdat win60%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shabab Al Ordon

Al Wihdat

9Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · League

Last match: 17 Oct · League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Wihdat	5	+1	8
10	Shabab Al Ordon	5	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al wihdat winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market60%

Us60%

~~Market~~60%

We make Al Wihdat a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are level with the market. The model expects 0.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shabab Al Ordon v Al Wihdat~~0.67 – 1.63

~~Form · League this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~10 v 4

~~The market · Al Wihdat win~~60% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Wihdat win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shabab Al Ordon win	15%	15%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Al Wihdat win	60%	60%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	43%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Shabab Al Ordon or draw	40%	40%	0
Shabab Al Ordon clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al Wihdat clean sheet	52%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.9%

0123450 10.9 15.9 13.2 7.2 3.0 1 6.2 11.3 8.6 4.7 2 2.3 3.6 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shabab Al Ordon down, Al Wihdat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shabab Al Ordon at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Wihdat away: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.67 goals for Shabab Al Ordon, 1.63 for Al Wihdat. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALW 3–0 SHA · SHA 1–0 ALW · SHA 0–0 ALW · ALW 3–0 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League this season · since 4 Sept

SHABAB AL ORDON

DDDLL1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 0–1

AL WIHDAT

DDLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Faisaly	6	+10	14
2	Al Jazeera	6	+8	9
3	Al Ramtha	6	−1	9
4	Al Wihdat	5	+1	8
5	Al Buqa'a	5	0	8
6	Al Hussein	6	−2	8
7	Al Salt	6	−1	6
8	Al Arabi	5	−5	4
9	Doqarah	6	−6	4
10	Shabab Al Ordon	5	−4	3