Doqarah v Al Jazeera prediction · League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Doqarah 1–5 Al Jazeera AL JAZEERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Jazeera win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.578

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.624

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Jazeera win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Jazeera was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–28–38
1′KICK-OFF Doqarah v Al Jazeera
9′Doqarah find the net on 8′. 0–0 · 33–30–38
9′We said Al Jazeera at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–22–15
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Doqarah 1–0 Al Jazeera
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Al Jazeera win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Doqarah win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Al Jazeera win 15%)
13′We said Al Jazeera at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
22′A goal for Al Jazeera on 21′. 1–0 · 64–23–13
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Doqarah 1–1 Al Jazeera
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Al Jazeera win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
34′Al Jazeera find the net on 33′. 1–1 · 29–38–33
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Doqarah win 29%)
35′We published Al Jazeera at 38%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–2 · 8–21–71
35′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–21–71
35′⚽ GOAL · 33' Doqarah 1–2 Al Jazeera
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Al Jazeera win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Al Jazeera win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
45′HALF-TIME Doqarah 1–2 Al Jazeera
46′SECOND HALF Doqarah 1–2 Al Jazeera
51′We published Al Jazeera at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
59′A goal for Al Jazeera on 58′. 1–2 · 4–19–78
59′We published Al Jazeera at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–3 · 0–3–96
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Al Jazeera win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Doqarah 1–3 Al Jazeera
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Al Jazeera win: 38% at kick-off, 96% now
60′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–96
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Al Jazeera win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
82′We published Al Jazeera at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′Al Jazeera find the net on 83′. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Doqarah 1–4 Al Jazeera
87′Al Jazeera score on 87′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Doqarah 1–5 Al Jazeera
88′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Doqarah 1–5 Al Jazeera
FTDoqarah 1–5 Al Jazeera · Al Jazeera win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Jazeera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doqarah 33%, draw 29%, Al Jazeera 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Doqarah v Al JazeeraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Doqarah win33%

Draw29%

Al Jazeera win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doqarah

Al Jazeera

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · League

Last match: 9 Oct · League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Jazeera	4	+4	5
8	Doqarah	4	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al jazeera winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Al Jazeera a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Doqarah v Al Jazeera~~1.11 – 1.22

~~Form · League this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 5~~8 v 4

~~The market · Al Jazeera win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Jazeera win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Doqarah win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Al Jazeera win	38%	36%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Doqarah or draw	62%	64%	−2
Doqarah clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Jazeera clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.8 11.3 7.2 3.0 1 10.3 13.3 7.6 3.2 2 6.1 7.1 4.2 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Doqarah down, Al Jazeera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 684 League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Doqarah at home: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Al Jazeera away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Doqarah, 1.22 for Al Jazeera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League this season · since 3 Sept

DOQARAH

LLWD0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

AL JAZEERA

WDDL5–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Faisaly	4	+7	10
2	Al Ramtha	4	+2	8
3	Al Buqa'a	4	0	7
4	Al Jazeera	4	+4	5
5	Al Wihdat	4	0	5
6	Al Hussein	4	−2	5
7	Al Salt	4	−1	4
8	Doqarah	4	−1	4
9	Al Arabi	5	−5	4
10	Shabab Al Ordon	5	−4	3