Al Wihdat v Al Hussein prediction · League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Al Wihdat 1–0 Al Hussein AL HUSSEIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Hussein win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Hussein win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Hussein 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Al Wihdat v Al Hussein
23′Al Wihdat find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
23′We said Al Hussein at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Al Wihdat 1–0 Al Hussein
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Al Hussein win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Al Wihdat win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Al Hussein win 13%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
42′We said Al Hussein at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Al Hussein win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Wihdat 1–0 Al Hussein
46′SECOND HALF Al Wihdat 1–0 Al Hussein
62′We said Al Hussein at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
FTFULL TIME Al Wihdat 1–0 Al Hussein
FTAl Wihdat 1–0 Al Hussein · Al Hussein win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Hussein are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Wihdat 33%, draw 29%, Al Hussein 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Wihdat v Al HusseinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Wihdat win33%

Draw29%

Al Hussein win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Wihdat

Al Hussein

8Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · League

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Wihdat	4	0	5
7	Al Hussein	4	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al hussein winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Al Hussein a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Wihdat v Al Hussein~~1.16 – 1.26

~~Form · League this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~5 v 7

~~The market · Al Hussein win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Hussein win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Wihdat win	33%	33%	0
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Al Hussein win	38%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	48%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Al Wihdat or draw	62%	61%	+1
Al Wihdat clean sheet	29%	–	–
Al Hussein clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.0 10.5 7.0 3.0 1 9.7 13.4 8.0 3.4 2 6.0 7.3 4.6 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Wihdat down, Al Hussein across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Wihdat at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Hussein away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Al Wihdat, 1.26 for Al Hussein. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALH 3–1 ALW · ALW 3–1 ALH · ALH 2–0 ALW · ALW 1–0 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League this season · since 4 Sept

AL WIHDAT

DDLW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

AL HUSSEIN

LDDW0–5 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Faisaly	4	+7	10
2	Al Jazeera	5	+8	8
3	Al Ramtha	4	+2	8
4	Al Buqa'a	5	0	8
5	Al Wihdat	4	0	5
6	Al Salt	5	−1	5
7	Al Hussein	4	−2	5
8	Al Arabi	5	−5	4
9	Doqarah	5	−5	4
10	Shabab Al Ordon	5	−4	3