Al Hussein v Doqarah prediction · League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 18:30

Al Hussein 1–0 Doqarah AL HUSSEIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Hussein win~~75%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.096

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.100

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Hussein win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Hussein was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–16–9
1′KICK-OFF Al Hussein v Doqarah
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
37′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–26–11
40′Doqarah find the net on 39′. 0–0 · 62–28–11
45′HALF-TIME Al Hussein 0–0 Doqarah
45′SECOND HALF Al Hussein 0–0 Doqarah
46′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–31–11
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 55% now
53′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–10
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 53–37–10
59′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–10
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 45% now
65′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–47–9
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Al Hussein win 46%)
69′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–52–9
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 35% now
73′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–58–8
77′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–65–7
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 25% now
80′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–71–6
82′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–76–5
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 15% now
85′We said Al Hussein at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–83–4
87′We published Al Hussein at 75%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
87′A goal for Al Hussein on 87′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al Hussein 1–0 Doqarah
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al Hussein win: 75% at kick-off, 97% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Al Hussein win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 85%)
FTFULL TIME Al Hussein 1–0 Doqarah
FTAl Hussein 1–0 Doqarah · Al Hussein win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Hussein are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Hussein 75%, draw 16%, Doqarah 9%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Al Hussein v DoqarahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al Hussein win75%

Draw16%

Doqarah win9%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Hussein

Doqarah

5Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · League

Last match: 16 Oct · League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Al Hussein	5	−3	5
9	Doqarah	5	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al hussein winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

75% The market75%

Us75%

~~Market~~75%

We make Al Hussein a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Hussein v Doqarah~~2.54 – 0.69

~~Form · League this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~7 v 9

~~The market · Al Hussein win~~75% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Hussein win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 75% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Hussein win	75%	75%	0
Draw	16%	17%	−1
Doqarah win	9%	9%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Al Hussein or draw	91%	91%	0
Al Hussein clean sheet	51%	–	–
Doqarah clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.3%

0123450 4.9 2.8 1 9.9 7.5 2.7 2 12.3 8.3 3.0 3 10.2 6.7 2.4 4 6.6 4.2 5 3.7 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Hussein down, Doqarah across0–5 goals a side shown (94.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 688 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al Hussein at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Doqarah away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.54 goals for Al Hussein, 0.69 for Doqarah. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League this season · since 3 Sept

AL HUSSEIN

LDDWL0–5 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 0–1

DOQARAH

LLWDL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Faisaly	5	+10	13
2	Al Jazeera	5	+8	8
3	Al Wihdat	5	+1	8
4	Al Buqa'a	5	0	8
5	Al Ramtha	5	−1	8
6	Al Salt	5	−1	5
7	Al Hussein	5	−3	5
8	Al Arabi	5	−5	4
9	Doqarah	5	−5	4
10	Shabab Al Ordon	5	−4	3