Al Faisaly v Al Ramtha prediction · League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Al Faisaly 4–1 Al Ramtha AL FAISALY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Faisaly win~~50%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.375

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.193

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Faisaly win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Faisaly was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–21
1′KICK-OFF Al Faisaly v Al Ramtha
8′Much as we predicted: Al Faisaly was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
13′Al Faisaly find the net on 12′. 0–0 · 48–31–21
14′We published Al Faisaly at 50%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
14′⚽ GOAL · 12' Al Faisaly 1–0 Al Ramtha
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Al Faisaly win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
31′We published Al Faisaly at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al Faisaly win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Faisaly 1–0 Al Ramtha
45′SECOND HALF Al Faisaly 1–0 Al Ramtha
55′A goal for Al Faisaly on 55′. 1–0 · 83–15–3
56′We published Al Faisaly at 50%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Al Faisaly 2–0 Al Ramtha
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Al Faisaly win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Al Faisaly 2–1 Al Ramtha
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al Faisaly win: 50% at kick-off, 85% now
64′A goal for Al Ramtha on 63′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
64′We published Al Faisaly at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
64′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 85–13–2
75′We published Al Faisaly at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Al Faisaly win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
86′A goal for Al Faisaly on 86′. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′We published Al Faisaly at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Al Faisaly 3–1 Al Ramtha
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al Faisaly win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′Al Faisaly find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Al Faisaly 4–1 Al Ramtha
FTFULL TIME Al Faisaly 4–1 Al Ramtha
FTAl Faisaly 4–1 Al Ramtha · Al Faisaly win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Faisaly are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Faisaly 50%, draw 28%, Al Ramtha 21%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Al Faisaly v Al RamthaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Faisaly win50%

Draw28%

Al Ramtha win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Faisaly

Al Ramtha

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 10 Oct · League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al faisaly winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

50% The market65%

Us50%

~~Market~~65%

We make Al Faisaly a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Faisaly v Al Ramtha~~1.43 – 0.83

~~Form · League this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~1 v 3

~~The market · Al Faisaly win~~65% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Faisaly win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Faisaly win	50%	65%	−15
Draw	28%	22%	+6
Al Ramtha win	21%	13%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	39%	52%	−13
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	75%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	32%	−13
Al Faisaly or draw	79%	87%	−8
Al Faisaly clean sheet	44%	–	–
Al Ramtha clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 11.4 8.0 3.7 1 14.2 12.8 5.1 2 10.5 8.6 3.6 3 5.1 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Faisaly down, Al Ramtha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Faisaly at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ramtha away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Al Faisaly, 0.83 for Al Ramtha. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALF 1–1 ALR · ALF 3–2 ALR · ALF 1–1 ALR · ALR 1–3 ALF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League this season · since 4 Sept

AL FAISALY

DWWW0–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0

AL RAMTHA

DWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Faisaly	4	+7	10
2	Al Jazeera	5	+8	8
3	Al Ramtha	4	+2	8
4	Al Buqa'a	5	0	8
5	Al Wihdat	4	0	5
6	Al Salt	5	−1	5
7	Al Hussein	4	−2	5
8	Al Arabi	5	−5	4
9	Doqarah	5	−5	4
10	Shabab Al Ordon	5	−4	3