Vegalta Sendai W v Nojima Stella W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Vegalta Sendai W 0–0 Nojima Stella W VEGALTA SENDAI W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vegalta Sendai W win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vegalta Sendai W win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Vegalta Sendai W v Nojima Stella W
2′Little has changed for our model: Vegalta Sendai W 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Nojima Stella W
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Vegalta Sendai W win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Vegalta Sendai W 0–0 Nojima Stella W
46′SECOND HALF Vegalta Sendai W 0–0 Nojima Stella W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Vegalta Sendai W win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–45–27
58′We said Vegalta Sendai W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–47–26
65′We said Vegalta Sendai W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nojima Stella W · On: Yua Sasai · Off: Katayama Yuna
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nojima Stella W · On: Iku Tsukiji · Off: Natsuki Kishikawa
73′We said Vegalta Sendai W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Vegalta Sendai W win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Honoka Shinoda · Off: Miyu Yakata
79′We said Vegalta Sendai W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Kotone Nakano · Vegalta Sendai W
83′We said Vegalta Sendai W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–81–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Vegalta Sendai W win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
90′We said Vegalta Sendai W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
FTFULL TIME Vegalta Sendai W 0–0 Nojima Stella W
FTVegalta Sendai W 0–0 Nojima Stella W · Vegalta Sendai W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vegalta Sendai W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vegalta Sendai W 39%, draw 24%, Nojima Stella W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Vegalta Sendai W v Nojima Stella WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vegalta Sendai W win39%

Draw24%

Nojima Stella W win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueYurtec Stadium

Line-ups

Vegalta Sendai W

4-3-3

Nojima Stella W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vegalta Sendai W

Nojima Stella W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · WE League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Nojima Stella W	5	−5	7
8	Vegalta Sendai W	5	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vegalta Sendai W

4-3-3

15 S. Shimizu

3 N. Kashimura

27 K. Nakano

8 S. Esaki

4 Satsuki Miura

18 S. Niina

2 A. Nishino

25 M. Ota

9 A. Tsuda

13 Miyu Yakata

10 Y. Endo

Coach · J. Sunaga

Substitutes

14 · Amane Takahara

19 · Nonoha Abe

11 · S. Fujisaki

1 · M. Ino

6 · Hina Inoue

20 · H. Kikuchi

7 · Honoka Shinoda

Nojima Stella W

4-4-2

1 U. Iwasaki

14 A. Nanri

24 Akira Shiori

29 Hikaru Yumura

5 R. Oga

4 J. Ito

6 Paola Soldevila

8 N. Kishikawa

9 C. Sasai

11 Y. Katayama

10 M. Otake

Coach · Tadashi Ogasahara

Substitutes

21 · Y. Katayama

17 · H. Kawashima

13 · G. Kyoka

18 · Y. Sasai

15 · H. Shirai

19 · I. Tsukiji

2 · R. Tsutsui

Our number · vegalta sendai w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Vegalta Sendai W a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vegalta Sendai W v Nojima Stella W~~1.42 – 1.38

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vegalta Sendai W win

Published at 38%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vegalta Sendai W win	39%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Nojima Stella W win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai W or draw	63%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai W clean sheet	26%	–	–
Nojima Stella W clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 9.2 5.8 2.7 1 9.4 11.0 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.2 5.6 2.6 3 3.0 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vegalta Sendai W down, Nojima Stella W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 644 WE League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vegalta Sendai W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nojima Stella W away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Vegalta Sendai W, 1.38 for Nojima Stella W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOJ 1–2 VEG · VEG 0–0 NOJ · NOJ 2–0 VEG · VEG 2–1 NOJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

VEGALTA SENDAI W

WLLLW2–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 2–1

NOJIMA STELLA W

WLLDW1–0 · 1–5 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	6	+3	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	JEF United W	5	+1	9
5	Elfen Saitama W	5	+1	7
6	Nojima Stella W	5	−5	7
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
8	Vegalta Sendai W	5	−2	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	5	−1	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3