Vegalta Sendai W v INAC Kobe Leonessa W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Vegalta Sendai W 3–4 INAC Kobe Leonessa W INAC KOBE LEONESSA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.157

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said INAC Kobe Leonessa W win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: INAC Kobe Leonessa W was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 13–19–68
1′KICK-OFF Vegalta Sendai W v INAC Kobe Leonessa W
4′INAC Kobe Leonessa W find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–10–86
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Vegalta Sendai W 0–1 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
5′We published INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 68%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 4–10–86
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 3–11–86
44′We published INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 68%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Vegalta Sendai W 0–2 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
45′Mao Kubota scores for INAC Kobe Leonessa W on 44′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′HALF-TIME Vegalta Sendai W 0–2 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
46′SECOND HALF Vegalta Sendai W 0–2 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Yui Narumiya · Off: Mao Kubota
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–11–87
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Vegalta Sendai W 1–2 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 68% at kick-off, 87% now
53′52′: Yume Endo on the scoresheet for Vegalta Sendai W. 1–3 · 0–2–98
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Vegalta Sendai W 1–3 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
54′INAC Kobe Leonessa W ahead on 52′ through Yui Narumiya. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
55′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Ayaka Michigami · Off: Ai Tsujisawa
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Natsume Kingetsu · Off: Rei Kitamura
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Honoka Shinoda · Off: Anon Tsuda
76′We published INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Moe Ota · Off: Hina Inoue
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Kana Matsuura · Off: Mitsuki Ota Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Megumi Takase · Off: Maya Yamamoto
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–4–96
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Vegalta Sendai W 2–3 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
86′Miyu Yakata scores for Vegalta Sendai W on 84′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–96
88′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 3–3 · 3–89–8
88′88′: Seira Esaki on the scoresheet for Vegalta Sendai W, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 3–89–8
88′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 3–89–8
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Vegalta Sendai W 3–3 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 68% at kick-off, 8% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was INAC Kobe Leonessa W win 8%)
92′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 2–94–4
94′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 0–1–99
94′INAC Kobe Leonessa W ahead on 90′ through Tamaki Okuma. 3–4. 3–4 · 0–1–99
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Vegalta Sendai W 3–4 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Miyu Matsui · Off: Yume Endo
FTFULL TIME Vegalta Sendai W 3–4 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
FTVegalta Sendai W 3–4 INAC Kobe Leonessa W · INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

INAC Kobe Leonessa W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vegalta Sendai W 13%, draw 19%, INAC Kobe Leonessa W 68%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Vegalta Sendai W v INAC Kobe Leonessa WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vegalta Sendai W win13%

Draw19%

INAC Kobe Leonessa W win68%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueYurtec Stadium

Line-ups

Vegalta Sendai W

4-3-3

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vegalta Sendai W

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

43Days since last match42

Last match: 5 Sept · WE League

Last match: 6 Sept · WE League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	4	+3	7
9	Vegalta Sendai W	3	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vegalta Sendai W

4-3-3

15 S. Shimizu

19 Nonoha Abe

4 Satsuki Miura

2 A. Nishino

27 K. Nakano

18 S. Niina

6 Hina Inoue

8 S. Esaki

13 Miyu Yakata

9 A. Tsuda

10 Y. Endo

Coach · J. Sunaga

Substitutes

7 · Honoka Shinoda

1 · M. Ino

21 · K. Iwaki

3 · N. Kashimura

20 · H. Kikuchi

50 · Miyu Matsui

25 · M. Ota

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

4-3-3

1 M. Tanaka

22 Azumi Manriki

3 M. Ota

5 S. Miyake

44 R. Kitamura

8 M. Yamamoto

25 T. Okuma

13 Ai Kuwahara

14 F. Mizuno

29 A. Tsujisawa

19 M. Kubota

Coach · Tomomi Miyamoto

Substitutes

30 · Kana Matsuura

18 · N. Kingetsu

99 · M. Funada

16 · Ayaka Michigami

10 · Y. Narumiya

28 · Mio Takaoka

11 · M. Takase

Our number · inac kobe leonessa w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make INAC Kobe Leonessa W a 68% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vegalta Sendai W v INAC Kobe Leonessa W~~0.73 – 2.04

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vegalta Sendai W win	13%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
INAC Kobe Leonessa W win	68%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai W or draw	32%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai W clean sheet	14%	–	–
INAC Kobe Leonessa W clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 6.1 13.4 12.8 8.8 4.6 2.01 5.3 8.7 9.0 6.1 3.2 2 3.5 3.4 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vegalta Sendai W down, INAC Kobe Leonessa W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 636 WE League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vegalta Sendai W at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). INAC Kobe Leonessa W away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for Vegalta Sendai W, 2.04 for INAC Kobe Leonessa W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VEG 1–2 INA · INA 2–0 VEG · INA 6–0 VEG · VEG 0–1 INA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

VEGALTA SENDAI W

WLL2–1 · 2–3 · 0–2

INAC KOBE LEONESSA W

WLDW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	3	+7	9
2	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	4	+3	7
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	3	+2	6
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	3	+2	6
5	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
6	Cerezo Osaka W	3	+1	4
7	Elfen Saitama W	3	0	4
8	JEF United W	3	−1	3
9	Vegalta Sendai W	3	−2	3
10	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	3	−2	3
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Nojima Stella W	3	−6	3