Urawa Reds W v INAC Kobe Leonessa W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Urawa Reds W 2–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W URAWA REDS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Urawa Reds W win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Urawa Reds W win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Urawa Reds W was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–35
1′KICK-OFF Urawa Reds W v INAC Kobe Leonessa W
16′Urawa Reds W score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Urawa Reds W 1–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Urawa Reds W win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
17′We published Urawa Reds W at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 68–21–11
34′We published Urawa Reds W at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Urawa Reds W 2–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Urawa Reds W win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
36′Urawa Reds W ahead on 34′ through Maria Kikuchi. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Urawa Reds W win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Urawa Reds W 2–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Mao Kubota · Off: Chisato Minowa
46′SECOND HALF Urawa Reds W 2–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
48′We published Urawa Reds W at 41%. Our model now makes it 72%. 2–1 · 72–21–7
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Urawa Reds W 2–1 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Urawa Reds W win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' INAC Kobe Leonessa W
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Urawa Reds W win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Ai Tsujisawa · Off: Mio Takaoka
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Natsume Kingetsu · Off: Maya Yamamoto
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Azumi Manriki · Off: Tamaki Okuma
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Urawa Reds W · On: Wakana Onishi · Off: Ririka Tanno
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Urawa Reds W · On: Easther Mayi Kith · Off: Nonoka Nagao
83′We published Urawa Reds W at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Megumi Takase · Off: Kana Matsuura
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Urawa Reds W · On: Ena Takatsuka · Off: Chika Kato
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Urawa Reds W · On: Yoshino Maehara · Off: Akimi Kawafune
FTFULL TIME Urawa Reds W 2–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W
FTUrawa Reds W 2–0 INAC Kobe Leonessa W · Urawa Reds W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Urawa Reds W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Urawa Reds W 41%, draw 24%, INAC Kobe Leonessa W 35%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Urawa Reds W v INAC Kobe Leonessa WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Urawa Reds W win41%

Draw24%

INAC Kobe Leonessa W win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueSaitama Stadium 2002

Line-ups

Urawa Reds W

4-2-3-1

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Urawa Reds W

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

6Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

Last match: 21 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Urawa Reds W

4-2-3-1

12 S. Fukuda

30 Nonoka Nagao

7 H. Takahashi

13 R. Nagashima

28 M. Sakurai

26 R. Tanno

14 M. Kikuchi

11 A. Kawafune

6 C. Kato

5 M. Ito

8 K. Sakakibara

Coach · T. Hori

Substitutes

18 · H. Shibata

16 · W. Onishi

2 · E. Mayi Kith

25 · Y. Maehara

1 · S. Ikeda

20 · E. Takatsuka

21 · Laurie Teinturier

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

4-3-3

1 M. Tanaka

14 F. Mizuno

30 Kana Matsuura

8 M. Yamamoto

3 M. Ota

10 Y. Narumiya

5 S. Miyake

17 C. Minowa

13 Ai Kuwahara

28 Mio Takaoka

25 T. Okuma

Coach · Tomomi Miyamoto

Substitutes

99 · M. Funada

18 · N. Kingetsu

44 · R. Kitamura

19 · M. Kubota

22 · Azumi Manriki

11 · M. Takase

29 · A. Tsujisawa

Our number · urawa reds w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Urawa Reds W a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Urawa Reds W v INAC Kobe Leonessa W~~1.42 – 1.30

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Urawa Reds W win

Published at 39%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Urawa Reds W win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
INAC Kobe Leonessa W win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Urawa Reds W or draw	65%	–	–
Urawa Reds W clean sheet	28%	–	–
INAC Kobe Leonessa W clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 9.4 5.6 2.5 1 10.1 11.2 7.7 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 3 3.2 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Urawa Reds W down, INAC Kobe Leonessa W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 644 WE League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Urawa Reds W at home: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). INAC Kobe Leonessa W away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Urawa Reds W, 1.30 for INAC Kobe Leonessa W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~URA 1–2 INA · INA 1–1 URA · INA 0–1 URA · URA 0–1 INA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

URAWA REDS W

WWWL1–0 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

INAC KOBE LEONESSA W

WLDWWL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	6	+3	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	JEF United W	5	+1	9
5	Elfen Saitama W	5	+1	7
6	Nojima Stella W	5	−5	7
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
8	Vegalta Sendai W	5	−2	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	5	−1	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3