Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Elfen Saitama W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 06:31

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 4–1 Elfen Saitama W TOKYO VERDY BELEZA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win at 67%.
2′Much as we predicted: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–18–15
2′KICK-OFF Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Elfen Saitama W
7′We published Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–5
7′A goal for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–5
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 1–0 Elfen Saitama W
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
14′We published Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 67%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 2–0 Elfen Saitama W
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
15′14′: Rihona Ujihara on the scoresheet for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 3–0 Elfen Saitama W
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
37′Tokyo Verdy Beleza W ahead on 36′ through Hikaru Naomoto. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
37′Tokyo Verdy Beleza W ahead on 35′ through Hikaru Naomoto. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
42′We published Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 3–0 Elfen Saitama W
46′SECOND HALF Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 3–0 Elfen Saitama W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Tomoko Muramatsu · Off: Mayo Doko
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Elfen Saitama W · On: Shoko Uemura · Off: Yoshino Osone
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Elfen Saitama W · On: Miu Tochitani · Off: Kokoro Otaka
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Miyu Matsunaga · Off: Rihona Ujihara
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Tamami Aso · Off: Yuzuho Shiokoshi
65′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–1–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 3–1 Elfen Saitama W
66′Nanami Kitamura scores for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W on 65′. 3–1 · 99–1–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Shino Matsuda · Off: Hikaru Naomoto
73′73′: Rinka Higuchi on the scoresheet for Elfen Saitama W. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 4–1 Elfen Saitama W
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Elfen Saitama W · On: Kokoro Kimoto · Off: Yui Tanaka
82′81′: Moka Hiwatari on the scoresheet for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Elfen Saitama W · On: Miki Sakuma · Off: Rinka Higuchi Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Rikako Kobayashi · Off: Niko Shikida
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Elfen Saitama W · On: Hibari Hara · Off: Maho Hirao
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Miharu Shinjo · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
FTFULL TIME Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 4–1 Elfen Saitama W
FTTokyo Verdy Beleza W 4–1 Elfen Saitama W · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 67%, draw 18%, Elfen Saitama W 15%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Elfen Saitama WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win67%

Draw18%

Elfen Saitama W win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueTama City Athletic Stadium

Line-ups

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

4-4-2

Elfen Saitama W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

Elfen Saitama W

6Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

Last match: 21 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
5	Elfen Saitama W	5	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

4-4-2

21 Mayu Mizuguchi

2 Y. Aoki

14 M. Shinjo

19 Y. Shiokoshi

4 M. Doko

7 N. Kitamura

32 Ema Matsuoka

8 H. Naomoto

11 M. Hiwatari

13 R. Ujihara

38 N. Shikida

Coach · N. Kusunose

Substitutes

6 · R. Sumida

17 · T. Aso

31 · Arisa Endo

20 · Rikako Kobayashi

5 · S. Matsuda

18 · M. Matsunaga

3 · T. Muramatsu

Elfen Saitama W

4-4-2

1 N. Asano

4 Maho Hirao

25 Kokoro Otaka

5 K. Setoguchi

20 M. Kishi

6 Y. Seno

32 Shoko Miaki

24 Y. Osone

18 H. Takahashi

7 R. Higuchi

8 Yui Tanaka

Coach · Y. Higuchi

Substitutes

17 · K. Kimoto

21 · A. Kashima

28 · Hibari Hara

13 · M. Sakuma

16 · M. Tochitani

14 · S. Uemura

29 · Asako Yamashita

Our number · tokyo verdy beleza w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Tokyo Verdy Beleza W a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Elfen Saitama W~~2.20 – 0.89

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win	67%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Elfen Saitama W win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W or draw	85%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W clean sheet	41%	–	–
Elfen Saitama W clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 4.3 4.8 1 10.6 8.4 4.0 2 10.8 9.5 4.3 3 7.9 6.9 3.1 4 4.4 3.8 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Tokyo Verdy Beleza W down, Elfen Saitama W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 644 WE League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Elfen Saitama W away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, 0.89 for Elfen Saitama W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOK 0–1 ELF · ELF 1–4 TOK · TOK 3–0 ELF · ELF 0–4 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

TOKYO VERDY BELEZA W

WWLW2–1 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 3–2

ELFEN SAITAMA W

LWDWL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	6	+3	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	JEF United W	5	+1	9
5	Elfen Saitama W	5	+1	7
6	Nojima Stella W	5	−5	7
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
8	Vegalta Sendai W	5	−2	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	5	−1	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3