Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Cerezo Osaka W prediction · WE League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tokyo Verdy Beleza WDrawCerezo Osaka W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 68%, draw 17%, Cerezo Osaka W 15%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Cerezo Osaka WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win68%

Draw17%

Cerezo Osaka W win15%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueAjinomoto Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

Cerezo Osaka W

4Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · WE League

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	5	+6	12
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tokyo verdy beleza w winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Tokyo Verdy Beleza W a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W v Cerezo Osaka W~~2.27 – 0.92

~~Form · WE League this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 5~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win	68%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka W win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W or draw	85%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W clean sheet	40%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka W clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 3.9 4.5 1 10.1 8.1 4.0 2 10.5 9.4 4.3 3 7.9 7.0 3.2 4 4.5 4.0 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Tokyo Verdy Beleza W down, Cerezo Osaka W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 644 WE League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cerezo Osaka W away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, 0.92 for Cerezo Osaka W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOK 2–1 CER · CER 2–3 TOK · TOK 2–1 CER · CER 1–4 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 23 Aug

TOKYO VERDY BELEZA W

WWLWW2–1 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 4–1

CEREZO OSAKA W

DWLD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	5	+8	12
2	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	5	+6	12
3	JEF United W	6	+2	12
4	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	7	+1	10
5	Nojima Stella W	6	−5	8
6	Vegalta Sendai W	6	−2	7
7	Elfen Saitama W	6	−2	7
8	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	6	−2	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3