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Sanfrecce Hiroshima W v Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

2–3Full time

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

WE League · SUN 18 OCT · Hiroshima Koiki Park Football

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–3 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W TOKYO VERDY BELEZA W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.504

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
1′KICK-OFF Sanfrecce Hiroshima W v Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
15′14′: Rikako Kobayashi on the scoresheet for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–69
15′We published Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 0–1 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · Rikako Kobayashi
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
20′We published Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 1–1 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Hikaru Naomoto · Off: Rikako Kobayashi
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Niko Shikida · Off: Tamami Aso
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 1–1 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 33% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win 33%)
46′SECOND HALF Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 1–1 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
47′Sanfrecce Hiroshima W level it on 45′ through Chise Takizawa. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–42–32
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
52′We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 25–45–30
55′We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–1 · 71–22–7
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–22–7
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–1 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
56′Chise Takizawa scores for Sanfrecce Hiroshima W on 55′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 71–22–7
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Nanami Kitamura · Off: Rihona Ujihara
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Moka Hiwatari · Off: Miyu Matsunaga
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W · On: Hanano Koga · Off: Mami Ueno
64′We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
68′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 3–1 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W · On: Eriko Goya · Off: Ri Song A
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W · On: Manaka Matsumoto · Off: Chise Takizawa
76′We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–2 · 13–71–16
76′75′: Miharu Shinjo on the scoresheet for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 13–71–16
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–2 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Sanfrecce Hiroshima W win 13%)
78′We said Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 12–74–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W · On: Momoko Sayama · Off: Miku Hayama
90′We published Tokyo Verdy Beleza W at 42%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–3 · 0–3–96
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–3–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · On: Danelle Tan Li Ern · Off: Rin Sumida
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–3 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: 42% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 3%)
91′Tokyo Verdy Beleza W ahead on 89′ through Yuna Aoki. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–3 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
FTSanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–3 Tokyo Verdy Beleza W · Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 32%, draw 26%, Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 42%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sanfrecce Hiroshima W v Tokyo Verdy Beleza WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W win32%

Draw26%

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueHiroshima Koiki Park Football

Line-ups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

43Days since last match43

Last match: 5 Sept · WE League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	3	+2	6
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	3	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Konomi

18 M. Watanabe

4 Kanako Asakura

38 H. Shimada

16 M. Hayama

23 F. Yanase

9 M. Ueno

8 A. Ogawa

10 C. Takizawa

30 R. Song

11 Y. Nakashima

Coach · M. Yoshida

Substitutes

6 · M. Sayama

3 · E. Goya

32 · I. Hinaha

7 · M. Ito

29 · A. Kasahara

28 · H. Koga

14 · M. Matsumoto

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

3-4-3

21 Mayu Mizuguchi

2 Y. Aoki

4 M. Doko

17 T. Aso

32 Ema Matsuoka

19 Y. Shiokoshi

6 R. Sumida

13 R. Ujihara

18 M. Matsunaga

20 Rikako Kobayashi

14 M. Shinjo

Coach · N. Kusunose

Substitutes

11 · M. Hiwatari

31 · Arisa Endo

40 · K. Ando

7 · N. Kitamura

8 · H. Naomoto

38 · N. Shikida

25 · Danelle Tan Li Ern

Our number · tokyo verdy beleza w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Tokyo Verdy Beleza W a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sanfrecce Hiroshima W v Tokyo Verdy Beleza W~~1.14 – 1.35

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W win	32%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W or draw	58%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W clean sheet	27%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.0 12.0 7.6 3.4 1 10.2 11.9 8.3 3.8 2 5.4 7.1 4.7 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sanfrecce Hiroshima W down, Tokyo Verdy Beleza W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 636 WE League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tokyo Verdy Beleza W away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima W, 1.35 for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–0 TOK · TOK 1–1 SAN · TOK 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–2 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA W

LWW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

TOKYO VERDY BELEZA W

WWL2–1 · 4–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	3	+7	9
2	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	4	+3	7
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	3	+2	6
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	3	+2	6
5	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
6	Cerezo Osaka W	3	+1	4
7	Elfen Saitama W	3	0	4
8	JEF United W	3	−1	3
9	Vegalta Sendai W	3	−2	3
10	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	3	−2	3
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Nojima Stella W	3	−6	3