Parceiro Nagano W v Omiya Ardija Ventus W prediction · WE League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Parceiro Nagano WDrawOmiya Ardija Ventus W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Omiya Ardija Ventus W 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omiya Ardija Ventus W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parceiro Nagano W 31%, draw 25%, Omiya Ardija Ventus W 43%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Parceiro Nagano W v Omiya Ardija Ventus WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Parceiro Nagano W win31%

Draw25%

Omiya Ardija Ventus W win43%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueNagano U Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parceiro Nagano W

Omiya Ardija Ventus W

11Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · WE League

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · omiya ardija ventus w winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Omiya Ardija Ventus W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parceiro Nagano W v Omiya Ardija Ventus W~~1.12 – 1.38

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parceiro Nagano W win	31%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Omiya Ardija Ventus W win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Parceiro Nagano W or draw	57%	–	–
Parceiro Nagano W clean sheet	26%	–	–
Omiya Ardija Ventus W clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 12.1 7.8 3.6 1 10.0 11.8 8.5 3.9 2 5.2 7.0 4.7 2.2 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parceiro Nagano W down, Omiya Ardija Ventus W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 648 WE League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parceiro Nagano W at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Omiya Ardija Ventus W away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Parceiro Nagano W, 1.38 for Omiya Ardija Ventus W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAR 1–2 OMI · OMI 2–3 PAR · PAR 1–1 OMI · OMI 0–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

PARCEIRO NAGANO W

LLDDD1–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

OMIYA ARDIJA VENTUS W

LLWL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	5	+8	12
2	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	5	+6	12
3	JEF United W	6	+2	12
4	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	7	+1	10
5	Nojima Stella W	6	−5	8
6	Vegalta Sendai W	6	−2	7
7	Elfen Saitama W	6	−2	7
8	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	6	−2	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3