Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Elfen Saitama W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 07:30

Omiya Ardija Ventus W 0–2 Elfen Saitama W OMIYA ARDIJA VENTUS W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omiya Ardija Ventus W win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omiya Ardija Ventus W win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Elfen Saitama W
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Omiya Ardija Ventus W win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Omiya Ardija Ventus W 0–0 Elfen Saitama W
46′SECOND HALF Omiya Ardija Ventus W 0–0 Elfen Saitama W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Omiya Ardija Ventus W win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Omiya Ardija Ventus W · On: Kirara Iwashita · Off: Mone Sato
53′We said Omiya Ardija Ventus W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–49–24
57′We said Omiya Ardija Ventus W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Omiya Ardija Ventus W 0–1 Elfen Saitama W
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Omiya Ardija Ventus W win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Elfen Saitama W win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
58′Maho Hirao scores for Elfen Saitama W on 57′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–75
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Omiya Ardija Ventus W · On: Hanon Nishio · Off: Mai Kadowaki
60′We said Omiya Ardija Ventus W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Omiya Ardija Ventus W · On: Minami Munakata · Off: Miyu Makino
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Hanon Nishio · Omiya Ardija Ventus W
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Omiya Ardija Ventus W · On: Yuna Takahashi · Off: Haruna Oshima
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Elfen Saitama W · On: Shoko Uemura · Off: Miu Tochitani
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Elfen Saitama W · On: Rinka Higuchi · Off: Yoshino Osone
75′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Omiya Ardija Ventus W 0–2 Elfen Saitama W
76′75′: Hina Takahashi on the scoresheet for Elfen Saitama W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Omiya Ardija Ventus W · On: Hinano Nishizawa · Off: Ena Ochiai
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Elfen Saitama W · On: Kokoro Kimoto · Off: Yui Tanaka
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Elfen Saitama W · On: Sakurako Ohashi · Off: Maho Hirao
FTFULL TIME Omiya Ardija Ventus W 0–2 Elfen Saitama W
FTOmiya Ardija Ventus W 0–2 Elfen Saitama W · Omiya Ardija Ventus W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omiya Ardija Ventus W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 39%, draw 27%, Elfen Saitama W 34%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Elfen Saitama WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Omiya Ardija Ventus W win39%

Draw27%

Elfen Saitama W win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueNACK5 Stadium Omiya

Line-ups

Omiya Ardija Ventus W

4-3-3

Elfen Saitama W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omiya Ardija Ventus W

Elfen Saitama W

43Days since last match43

Last match: 5 Sept · WE League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Elfen Saitama W	3	0	4
10	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	3	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Omiya Ardija Ventus W

4-3-3

22 M. Imamura

6 M. Sugisawa

10 R. Norimatsu

3 R. Kanehira

33 M. Sato

27 M. Makino

2 E. Ochiai

4 M. Takahashi

34 M. Hamada

20 Mai Kadowaki

11 H. Oshima

Coach · R. Yanai

Substitutes

7 · H. Nishizawa

15 · M. Hayashi

1 · Yuria Ito

5 · Kirara Iwashita

14 · M. Munakata

9 · H. Nishio

18 · Y. Takahashi

Elfen Saitama W

4-2-3-1

1 N. Asano

4 Maho Hirao

20 M. Kishi

32 Shoko Miaki

25 Kokoro Otaka

6 Y. Seno

5 K. Setoguchi

8 Yui Tanaka

24 Y. Osone

16 M. Tochitani

18 H. Takahashi

Coach · Y. Higuchi

Substitutes

9 · E. Arakawa

7 · R. Higuchi

21 · A. Kashima

14 · S. Uemura

13 · M. Sakuma

35 · Sakurako Ohashi

17 · K. Kimoto

Our number · omiya ardija ventus w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Omiya Ardija Ventus W a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Elfen Saitama W~~1.17 – 1.07

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omiya Ardija Ventus W win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Elfen Saitama W win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Omiya Ardija Ventus W or draw	66%	–	–
Omiya Ardija Ventus W clean sheet	35%	–	–
Elfen Saitama W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 12.1 6.1 2.2 1 13.1 12.4 7.0 2.5 2 7.3 7.6 4.1 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omiya Ardija Ventus W down, Elfen Saitama W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 636 WE League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omiya Ardija Ventus W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Elfen Saitama W away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Omiya Ardija Ventus W, 1.07 for Elfen Saitama W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 04:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ELF 0–1 OMI · OMI 0–0 ELF · ELF 0–1 OMI · OMI 1–2 ELF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

OMIYA ARDIJA VENTUS W

LLW0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

ELFEN SAITAMA W

LWD0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	3	+7	9
2	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	4	+3	7
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	3	+2	6
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	3	+2	6
5	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
6	Cerezo Osaka W	3	+1	4
7	Elfen Saitama W	3	0	4
8	JEF United W	3	−1	3
9	Vegalta Sendai W	3	−2	3
10	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	3	−2	3
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Nojima Stella W	3	−6	3