Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Cerezo Osaka W prediction · WE League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Omiya Ardija Ventus WDrawCerezo Osaka W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Omiya Ardija Ventus W 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Omiya Ardija Ventus W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 37%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka W 36%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Cerezo Osaka WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Omiya Ardija Ventus W win37%

Draw27%

Cerezo Osaka W win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueNACK5 Stadium Omiya

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omiya Ardija Ventus W

Cerezo Osaka W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · omiya ardija ventus w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Omiya Ardija Ventus W a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omiya Ardija Ventus W v Cerezo Osaka W~~1.16 – 1.14

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 5~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omiya Ardija Ventus W win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka W win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Omiya Ardija Ventus W or draw	64%	–	–
Omiya Ardija Ventus W clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 9.6 12.2 6.5 2.5 1 12.5 12.2 7.3 2.8 2 6.8 7.5 4.2 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omiya Ardija Ventus W down, Cerezo Osaka W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 644 WE League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omiya Ardija Ventus W at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cerezo Osaka W away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Omiya Ardija Ventus W, 1.14 for Cerezo Osaka W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OMI 1–0 CER · CER 2–1 OMI · CER 1–2 OMI · OMI 0–4 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

OMIYA ARDIJA VENTUS W

LLWL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

CEREZO OSAKA W

DWLD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	5	+8	12
2	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	5	+6	12
3	JEF United W	6	+2	12
4	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	7	+1	10
5	Nojima Stella W	6	−5	8
6	Vegalta Sendai W	6	−2	7
7	Elfen Saitama W	6	−2	7
8	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	6	−2	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3