Nojima Stella W v Albirex Niigata W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:01

Nojima Stella W 1–0 Albirex Niigata W ALBIREX NIIGATA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Albirex Niigata W win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Albirex Niigata W win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Albirex Niigata W 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
1′KICK-OFF Nojima Stella W v Albirex Niigata W
16′Albirex Niigata W score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–69
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Nojima Stella W 0–1 Albirex Niigata W
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Albirex Niigata W win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Albirex Niigata W
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Albirex Niigata W win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Albirex Niigata W win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Nojima Stella W 0–0 Albirex Niigata W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nojima Stella W · On: Katayama Yuna · Off: Haruna Kawashima
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nojima Stella W · On: Natsuki Kishikawa · Off: Himeno Shirai
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Albirex Niigata W win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
46′SECOND HALF Nojima Stella W 0–0 Albirex Niigata W
52′We said Albirex Niigata W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 25–44–31
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 24–46–30
56′We said Albirex Niigata W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–22–7
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Nojima Stella W 1–0 Albirex Niigata W
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Albirex Niigata W win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Nojima Stella W win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 47%)
57′56′: Hikaru Yumura on the scoresheet for Nojima Stella W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–7
66′We said Albirex Niigata W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Albirex Niigata W · On: Nahomi Kawasumi · Off: Yume Takikawa
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Albirex Niigata W · On: Anna Ezaki · Off: Kanami Shimobori
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Albirex Niigata W win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nojima Stella W · On: Yua Sasai · Off: Hikaru Yumura
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Albirex Niigata W · On: Reina Shirowa · Off: Seira Tanaka
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Albirex Niigata W · On: Megumi Kamionobe · Off: Yui Shimoyoshi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Albirex Niigata W · On: Chihiro Tomioka · Off: Yuina Yamamoto
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Nojima Stella W · On: Riko Tsutsui · Off: Akira Shiori
FTFULL TIME Nojima Stella W 1–0 Albirex Niigata W
FTNojima Stella W 1–0 Albirex Niigata W · Albirex Niigata W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Albirex Niigata W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nojima Stella W 33%, draw 25%, Albirex Niigata W 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Nojima Stella W v Albirex Niigata WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Nojima Stella W win33%

Draw25%

Albirex Niigata W win43%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSagamihara Gion Stadium

Line-ups

Nojima Stella W

4-4-2

Albirex Niigata W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nojima Stella W

Albirex Niigata W

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

Last match: 17 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
10	Nojima Stella W	4	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nojima Stella W

4-4-2

1 U. Iwasaki

14 A. Nanri

5 R. Oga

6 Paola Soldevila

15 H. Shirai

17 H. Kawashima

24 Akira Shiori

4 J. Ito

9 C. Sasai

29 Hikaru Yumura

10 M. Otake

Coach · Tadashi Ogasahara

Substitutes

7 · H. Hirata

11 · Y. Katayama

13 · G. Kyoka

21 · Y. Katayama

8 · N. Kishikawa

18 · Y. Sasai

2 · R. Tsutsui

Albirex Niigata W

4-4-2

1 C. Hirao

6 S. Ariyoshi

20 R. Yamaya

4 E. Yokoyama

7 M. Sonoda

33 S. Tanaka

14 Y. Shimoyoshi

13 A. Sugita

17 Y. Takikawa

11 K. Shimobori

23 Y. Yamamoto

Coach · Kazuaki Hashikawa

Substitutes

16 · C. Tomioka

19 · Reina Shirowa

5 · Y. Shirasawa

22 · Riko Sanuga

9 · N. Kawasumi

10 · M. Kamionobe

18 · Anna Ezaki

Our number · albirex niigata w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Albirex Niigata W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nojima Stella W v Albirex Niigata W~~1.21 – 1.42

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 5~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Albirex Niigata W win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nojima Stella W win	33%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Albirex Niigata W win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Nojima Stella W or draw	57%	–	–
Nojima Stella W clean sheet	25%	–	–
Albirex Niigata W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.9 11.0 7.3 3.5 1 9.4 11.5 8.5 4.1 2 5.3 7.3 5.1 2.4 3 2.2 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nojima Stella W down, Albirex Niigata W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 641 WE League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nojima Stella W at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Albirex Niigata W away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Nojima Stella W, 1.42 for Albirex Niigata W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALB 0–2 NOJ · NOJ 1–0 ALB · ALB 1–0 NOJ · NOJ 0–2 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

NOJIMA STELLA W

WLLD1–0 · 1–5 · 1–4 · 2–2

ALBIREX NIIGATA W

DWLD1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	6	+3	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	JEF United W	5	+1	9
5	Elfen Saitama W	5	+1	7
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
7	Vegalta Sendai W	5	−2	6
8	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
9	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
10	Nojima Stella W	4	−6	4
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3