INAC Kobe Leonessa W v JEF United W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 06:30

INAC Kobe Leonessa W 1–2 JEF United W INAC KOBE LEONESSA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said INAC Kobe Leonessa W win at 71%.
2′Much as we predicted: INAC Kobe Leonessa W was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–11
2′KICK-OFF INAC Kobe Leonessa W v JEF United W
11′A goal for JEF United W on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 41–27–32
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' INAC Kobe Leonessa W 0–1 JEF United W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
12′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–27–32
13′Runa Masano scores for JEF United W on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 40–27–33
15′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–27–33
25′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–29–37
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' JEF United W win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was INAC Kobe Leonessa W win 36%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 31–30–39
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 31% now
35′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–30–41
42′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–31–45
45′HALF-TIME INAC Kobe Leonessa W 0–1 JEF United W
46′SECOND HALF INAC Kobe Leonessa W 0–1 JEF United W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 21% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' JEF United W · On: Ami Uemoto · Off: Makoto Hasuwa
51′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–31–50
55′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–42–11
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' INAC Kobe Leonessa W 1–1 JEF United W
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 47% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was JEF United W win 53%)
56′55′: Mao Kubota on the scoresheet for INAC Kobe Leonessa W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–43–11
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' JEF United W · On: Ogawa Yuki · Off: Runa Masano
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' JEF United W · On: Ayaka Inoue · Off: Ami Kitazawa
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was INAC Kobe Leonessa W win 45%)
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Natsume Kingetsu · Off: Tamaki Okuma
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Chisato Minowa · Off: Azumi Manriki
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' JEF United W · On: Miyu Inayama · Off: Amyu Hirai
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 31% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' JEF United W · On: Chihiro Yamaguchi · Off: Sakura Masuda
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 21% now
84′We said INAC Kobe Leonessa W at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' INAC Kobe Leonessa W 1–2 JEF United W
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: 71% at kick-off, 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' JEF United W win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 81%)
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–11–88
85′JEF United W ahead on 84′ through Ogawa Yuki. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Mio Takaoka · Off: Ai Tsujisawa
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Sakaki Manaka · Off: Rei Kitamura
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' INAC Kobe Leonessa W · On: Ayaka Michigami · Off: Natsume Kingetsu
FTFULL TIME INAC Kobe Leonessa W 1–2 JEF United W
FTINAC Kobe Leonessa W 1–2 JEF United W · INAC Kobe Leonessa W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

INAC Kobe Leonessa W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 71%, draw 18%, JEF United W 11%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on INAC Kobe Leonessa W v JEF United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

INAC Kobe Leonessa W win71%

Draw18%

JEF United W win11%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueNoevir Stadium Kobe

Line-ups

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

4-3-3

JEF United W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

JEF United W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

4-3-3

1 M. Tanaka

22 Azumi Manriki

3 M. Ota

5 S. Miyake

44 R. Kitamura

10 Y. Narumiya

25 T. Okuma

13 Ai Kuwahara

14 F. Mizuno

29 A. Tsujisawa

19 M. Kubota

Coach · Tomomi Miyamoto

Substitutes

99 · M. Funada

18 · N. Kingetsu

30 · Kana Matsuura

16 · Ayaka Michigami

17 · C. Minowa

35 · Sakaki Manaka

28 · Mio Takaoka

JEF United W

4-4-2

1 M. Shimizu

99 Sumire Suzuki

5 Mariko Tanaka

3 N. Ishida

16 Ella Johnson

25 S. Masuda

6 M. Hasuwa

8 H. Kobayashi

15 A. Hirai

20 Runa Masano

84 Ami Kitazawa

Coach · Karmele Tores

Substitutes

30 · Kaede Adachi

17 · C. Yamaguchi

14 · Ami Uemoto

10 · Y. Ogawa

9 · A. Inoue

18 · M. Inayama

4 · K. Hayashi

Our number · inac kobe leonessa w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make INAC Kobe Leonessa W a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · INAC Kobe Leonessa W v JEF United W~~2.10 – 0.65

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · INAC Kobe Leonessa W win

Published at 72%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
INAC Kobe Leonessa W win	71%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
JEF United W win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
INAC Kobe Leonessa W or draw	89%	–	–
INAC Kobe Leonessa W clean sheet	53%	–	–
JEF United W clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 6.3 4.7 1 14.0 8.2 2.9 2 13.9 8.8 2.9 3 9.7 6.1 2.0 4 5.2 3.2 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+INAC Kobe Leonessa W down, JEF United W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 641 WE League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

INAC Kobe Leonessa W at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). JEF United W away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for INAC Kobe Leonessa W, 0.65 for JEF United W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INA 4–0 JEF · JEF 0–1 INA · INA 2–1 JEF · JEF 1–2 INA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

INAC KOBE LEONESSA W

WLDWW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 4–3

JEF UNITED W

LLWW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	5	+4	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	Elfen Saitama W	4	+2	7
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
6	JEF United W	4	0	6
7	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
8	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
9	Nojima Stella W	4	−6	4
10	Vegalta Sendai W	4	−3	3
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3