Elfen Saitama W v Vegalta Sendai W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 07:30

Elfen Saitama W 1–2 Vegalta Sendai W ELFEN SAITAMA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elfen Saitama W win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.725

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elfen Saitama W win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Elfen Saitama W 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Elfen Saitama W v Vegalta Sendai W
30′We said Elfen Saitama W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–62
30′A goal for Vegalta Sendai W on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–62
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Elfen Saitama W 0–1 Vegalta Sendai W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Elfen Saitama W win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Vegalta Sendai W win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Elfen Saitama W win 38%)
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
39′We said Elfen Saitama W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–89
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Elfen Saitama W 0–2 Vegalta Sendai W
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Elfen Saitama W win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
40′39′: Moe Ota on the scoresheet for Vegalta Sendai W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
45′HALF-TIME Elfen Saitama W 0–2 Vegalta Sendai W
46′SECOND HALF Elfen Saitama W 0–2 Vegalta Sendai W
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Amane Takahara · Off: Honoka Shinoda Corrected
50′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Hana Kikuchi · Off: Moe Ota Corrected
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Elfen Saitama W · On: Rinka Higuchi · Off: Yoshino Osone
52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Elfen Saitama W · On: Minori Kishi · Off: Kokoro Otaka
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Anon Tsuda · Off: Miyu Yakata
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Elfen Saitama W · On: Miu Tochitani · Off: Yui Tanaka
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Elfen Saitama W · On: Kokoro Kimoto · Off: Shoko Uemura
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Elfen Saitama W · On: Miki Sakuma · Off: Sakurako Ohashi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Amane Takahara · Off: Seira Esaki
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Hana Kikuchi · Off: Yume Endo
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Elfen Saitama W 1–2 Vegalta Sendai W
87′Elfen Saitama W pull one back on 84′ through Shoko Miaki. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vegalta Sendai W · On: Hina Inoue · Off: Honoka Shinoda
FTFULL TIME Elfen Saitama W 1–2 Vegalta Sendai W
FTElfen Saitama W 1–2 Vegalta Sendai W · Elfen Saitama W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elfen Saitama W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elfen Saitama W 43%, draw 26%, Vegalta Sendai W 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Elfen Saitama W v Vegalta Sendai WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Elfen Saitama W win43%

Draw26%

Vegalta Sendai W win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueKawagoe Sports Park Stadium

Line-ups

Elfen Saitama W

4-2-3-1

Vegalta Sendai W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elfen Saitama W

Vegalta Sendai W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · WE League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Elfen Saitama W	4	+2	7
10	Vegalta Sendai W	4	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Elfen Saitama W

4-2-3-1

21 A. Kashima

4 Maho Hirao

35 Sakurako Ohashi

32 Shoko Miaki

25 Kokoro Otaka

6 Y. Seno

5 K. Setoguchi

8 Yui Tanaka

24 Y. Osone

14 S. Uemura

18 H. Takahashi

Coach · Y. Higuchi

Substitutes

29 · Asako Yamashita

1 · N. Asano

7 · R. Higuchi

17 · K. Kimoto

20 · M. Kishi

13 · M. Sakuma

16 · M. Tochitani

Vegalta Sendai W

4-3-3

15 S. Shimizu

18 S. Niina

4 Satsuki Miura

2 A. Nishino

27 K. Nakano

7 Honoka Shinoda

8 S. Esaki

25 M. Ota

13 Miyu Yakata

3 N. Kashimura

10 Y. Endo

Coach · J. Sunaga

Substitutes

6 · Hina Inoue

1 · M. Ino

19 · Nonoha Abe

20 · H. Kikuchi

28 · M. Matsunaga

14 · Amane Takahara

9 · A. Tsuda

Our number · elfen saitama w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Elfen Saitama W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elfen Saitama W v Vegalta Sendai W~~1.34 – 1.09

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elfen Saitama W win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elfen Saitama W win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai W win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Elfen Saitama W or draw	69%	–	–
Elfen Saitama W clean sheet	34%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.4 10.3 5.3 1 12.4 12.0 6.9 2.5 2 7.9 8.4 4.6 3 3.6 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elfen Saitama W down, Vegalta Sendai W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 641 WE League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elfen Saitama W at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vegalta Sendai W away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Elfen Saitama W, 1.09 for Vegalta Sendai W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 04:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VEG 2–3 ELF · ELF 1–3 VEG · ELF 4–0 VEG · VEG 2–1 ELF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

ELFEN SAITAMA W

LWDW0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

VEGALTA SENDAI W

WLLL2–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	5	+4	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	Elfen Saitama W	4	+2	7
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
6	JEF United W	4	0	6
7	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
8	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
9	Nojima Stella W	4	−6	4
10	Vegalta Sendai W	4	−3	3
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3