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Cerezo Osaka W v Nojima Stella W

Cerezo Osaka W

2–2Full time

Nojima Stella W

WE League · SUN 18 OCT · Osaka Nagai Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Cerezo Osaka W 2–2 Nojima Stella W CEREZO OSAKA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerezo Osaka W win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.866

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerezo Osaka W win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerezo Osaka W was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–34
1′KICK-OFF Cerezo Osaka W v Nojima Stella W
19′A goal for Cerezo Osaka W on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–12
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Cerezo Osaka W 1–0 Nojima Stella W
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
20′We published Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
28′28′: Hiromi Yoneda puts it into the Cerezo Osaka W net, and it is 1–1. 1–1 · 37–31–31
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Cerezo Osaka W 1–1 Nojima Stella W
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
29′27′: Hiromi Yoneda puts it into the Cerezo Osaka W net, and it is 1–1. 1–1 · 37–32–31
41′We published Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 2–1 · 71–21–9
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Cerezo Osaka W 2–1 Nojima Stella W
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
42′Cerezo Osaka W ahead on 41′ through Saori Takarada. 2–1. 2–1 · 71–21–8
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–21–8
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Cerezo Osaka W 2–1 Nojima Stella W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cerezo Osaka W · On: Miyuka Momono · Off: Mino Tamamura
46′SECOND HALF Cerezo Osaka W 2–1 Nojima Stella W
55′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 2–2 · 30–45–26
55′Hikaru Yumura scores for Nojima Stella W on 54′. 2–1 · 74–20–6
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cerezo Osaka W 2–2 Nojima Stella W
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 30% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Cerezo Osaka W win 30%)
55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Nojima Stella W
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Cerezo Osaka W win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
56′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–46–25
56′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 29–46–25
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Cerezo Osaka W 2–2 Nojima Stella W · Hikaru Yumura
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 29% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Cerezo Osaka W win 29%)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Nojima Stella W · On: An Nanri · Off: Haruna Kawashima
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Nojima Stella W · On: Natsuki Kishikawa · Off: Himeno Shirai
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nojima Stella W · On: Katayama Yuna · Off: Risako Oga
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cerezo Osaka W · On: Serika Takawa · Off: Natsumi Tago
66′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–55–21
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
73′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–64–17
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Katayama Yuna · Nojima Stella W
80′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–76–11
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cerezo Osaka W · On: Yuzuha Ikeda · Off: Reina Wakisaka
84′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–84–7
91′We said Cerezo Osaka W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
91′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nojima Stella W · On: Aki Kiryū · Off: Chinari Sasai
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Cerezo Osaka W win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Nojima Stella W · On: Hikari Hirata · Off: Hikaru Yumura
FTFULL TIME Cerezo Osaka W 2–2 Nojima Stella W
FTCerezo Osaka W 2–2 Nojima Stella W · Cerezo Osaka W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cerezo Osaka W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerezo Osaka W 42%, draw 24%, Nojima Stella W 34%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Cerezo Osaka W v Nojima Stella WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cerezo Osaka W win42%

Draw24%

Nojima Stella W win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueOsaka Nagai Stadium

Line-ups

Cerezo Osaka W

4-5-1

Nojima Stella W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerezo Osaka W

Nojima Stella W

43Days since last match42

Last match: 5 Sept · WE League

Last match: 6 Sept · WE League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cerezo Osaka W	3	+1	4
12	Nojima Stella W	3	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cerezo Osaka W

4-5-1

27 M. Nishinaka

5 M. Asayama

3 H. Yoneda

17 R. Nakatani

7 Y. Ogikubo

9 A. Wada

10 R. Wakisaka

18 H. Miyamoto

29 Mino Tamamura

11 Saori Takarada

20 N. Tago

Coach · T. Matsuda

Substitutes

16 · Maia Takeuchi

28 · Yuzuha Ikeda

21 · Ishida Kokona

26 · S. Kitahara

6 · Haruka Kubota

13 · M. Momono

14 · S. Takawa

Nojima Stella W

Formation not confirmed

1 U. Iwasaki

5 R. Oga

2 R. Tsutsui

6 Paola Soldevila

15 H. Shirai

17 H. Kawashima

24 Akira Shiori

4 J. Ito

9 C. Sasai

29 Hikaru Yumura

10 M. Otake

Coach · T. Ogasahara

Substitutes

11 · Y. Katayama

7 · H. Hirata

13 · G. Kyoka

21 · Y. Katayama

25 · A. Kiryu

8 · N. Kishikawa

14 · A. Nanri

Our number · cerezo osaka w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Cerezo Osaka W a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerezo Osaka W v Nojima Stella W~~1.45 – 1.29

~~Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~6 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerezo Osaka W win	42%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Nojima Stella W win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka W or draw	66%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Nojima Stella W clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 9.1 5.4 2.4 1 10.1 11.2 7.6 3.3 2 6.8 8.5 5.4 2.4 3 3.3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerezo Osaka W down, Nojima Stella W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 636 WE League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerezo Osaka W at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nojima Stella W away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Cerezo Osaka W, 1.29 for Nojima Stella W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NOJ 3–0 CER · CER 2–0 NOJ · NOJ 0–2 CER · CER 3–1 NOJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 22 Aug

CEREZO OSAKA W

DWL1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

NOJIMA STELLA W

WLL1–0 · 1–5 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Urawa Reds W	3	+7	9
2	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	4	+3	7
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	3	+2	6
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	3	+2	6
5	Albirex Niigata W	4	0	5
6	Cerezo Osaka W	3	+1	4
7	Elfen Saitama W	3	0	4
8	JEF United W	3	−1	3
9	Vegalta Sendai W	3	−2	3
10	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	3	−2	3
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Nojima Stella W	3	−6	3