Albirex Niigata W v JEF United W prediction · WE League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 07:31

Albirex Niigata W 0–1 JEF United W ALBIREX NIIGATA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Albirex Niigata W win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Albirex Niigata W win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Albirex Niigata W 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Albirex Niigata W v JEF United W
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Albirex Niigata W win 38%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Albirex Niigata W win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′We said Albirex Niigata W at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–45–22
45′HALF-TIME Albirex Niigata W 0–0 JEF United W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Albirex Niigata W · On: Yume Takikawa · Off: Reina Shirowa
46′SECOND HALF Albirex Niigata W 0–0 JEF United W
54′We said Albirex Niigata W at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' JEF United W · On: Runa Masano · Off: Amyu Hirai
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' JEF United W · On: Sumire Suzuki · Off: Chihiro Yamaguchi
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Albirex Niigata W win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
64′We said Albirex Niigata W at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Albirex Niigata W · On: Kanami Shimobori · Off: Nahomi Kawasumi
71′We said Albirex Niigata W at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
73′We said Albirex Niigata W at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Albirex Niigata W 0–1 JEF United W
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Albirex Niigata W win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' JEF United W win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 69%)
74′JEF United W ahead on 72′ through Sumire Suzuki. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Albirex Niigata W · On: Anna Ezaki · Off: Yuina Yamamoto
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' JEF United W · On: Nanami Ishida · Off: Ella Johnson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Albirex Niigata W · On: Yurie Shirasawa · Off: Ruka Yamaya Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Albirex Niigata W · On: Megumi Kamionobe · Off: Seira Tanaka
FTFULL TIME Albirex Niigata W 0–1 JEF United W
FTAlbirex Niigata W 0–1 JEF United W · Albirex Niigata W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Albirex Niigata W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albirex Niigata W 45%, draw 28%, JEF United W 27%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Albirex Niigata W v JEF United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Albirex Niigata W win45%

Draw28%

JEF United W win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueDenka Big Swan Stadium

Line-ups

Albirex Niigata W

4-4-2

JEF United W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albirex Niigata W

JEF United W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · WE League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	JEF United W	5	+1	9
10	Albirex Niigata W	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Albirex Niigata W

4-4-2

1 C. Hirao

6 S. Ariyoshi

7 M. Sonoda

33 S. Tanaka

20 R. Yamaya

13 A. Sugita

4 E. Yokoyama

14 Y. Shimoyoshi

19 Reina Shirowa

9 N. Kawasumi

23 Y. Yamamoto

Coach · Kazuaki Hashikawa

Substitutes

18 · Anna Ezaki

10 · M. Kamionobe

22 · Riko Sanuga

11 · K. Shimobori

5 · Y. Shirasawa

17 · Y. Takikawa

16 · C. Tomioka

JEF United W

4-4-2

1 M. Shimizu

5 Mariko Tanaka

17 C. Yamaguchi

18 M. Inayama

4 K. Hayashi

14 Ami Uemoto

16 Ella Johnson

8 H. Kobayashi

9 A. Inoue

10 Y. Ogawa

15 A. Hirai

Coach · Karmele Tores

Substitutes

99 · Sumire Suzuki

11 · Ririka Nedu

25 · S. Masuda

20 · Runa Masano

84 · Ami Kitazawa

3 · N. Ishida

30 · Kaede Adachi

Our number · albirex niigata w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Albirex Niigata W a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albirex Niigata W v JEF United W~~1.21 – 0.87

~~Form · WE League this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Albirex Niigata W win

Published at 48%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albirex Niigata W win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
JEF United W win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Albirex Niigata W or draw	73%	–	–
Albirex Niigata W clean sheet	42%	–	–
JEF United W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 12.1 11.6 4.7 1 15.9 12.1 5.6 2 9.1 7.8 3.4 3 3.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albirex Niigata W down, JEF United W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 644 WE League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: WE League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Albirex Niigata W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). JEF United W away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Albirex Niigata W, 0.87 for JEF United W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 04:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALB 1–0 JEF · JEF 0–1 ALB · JEF 0–1 ALB · ALB 0–1 JEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WE League this season · since 23 Aug

ALBIREX NIIGATA W

DWLDL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

JEF UNITED W

LLWWW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	INAC Kobe Leonessa W	6	+3	10
2	Urawa Reds W	4	+6	9
3	Tokyo Verdy Beleza W	4	+3	9
4	JEF United W	5	+1	9
5	Elfen Saitama W	5	+1	7
6	Nojima Stella W	5	−5	7
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima W	4	+1	6
8	Vegalta Sendai W	5	−2	6
9	Cerezo Osaka W	4	+1	5
10	Albirex Niigata W	5	−1	5
11	Parceiro Nagano W	5	−4	3
12	Omiya Ardija Ventus W	4	−4	3