Tochigi SC v Renofa Yamaguchi prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Tochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi RENOFA YAMAGUCHI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Renofa Yamaguchi win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.612

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Renofa Yamaguchi win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Renofa Yamaguchi 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Tochigi SC v Renofa Yamaguchi
3′Little has changed for our model: Renofa Yamaguchi 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Tochigi SC
45′SECOND HALF Tochigi SC 0–0 Renofa Yamaguchi
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Tochigi SC
57′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Tochigi SC · On: K. Nakano · Off: J. Nakamura
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Tochigi SC · On: T. Myogan · Off: T. Igarashi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: N. Nomura · Off: K. Nakashima
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: R. Gunji · Off: S. Watanabe
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: R. Gunji · Off: S. Watanabe
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tochigi SC · On: Y. Matsushita · Off: H. Sese
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tochigi SC · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: K. Sugimori
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Renofa Yamaguchi
78′🟨 YELLOW · 27' R. Higashi · Tochigi SC
78′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi · S. Yamamoto (assist S. Watanabe)
78′🟨 YELLOW · 53' R. Osako · Tochigi SC
78′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Tochigi SC · On: T. Myogan · Off: T. Igarashi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Tochigi SC · On: K. Nakano · Off: J. Nakamura
78′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: S. Kubo · Off: S. Yamamoto
78′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: N. Nomura · Off: K. Nakashima
78′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: R. Gunji · Off: S. Watanabe
78′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Tochigi SC · On: Y. Matsushita · Off: H. Sese
78′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tochigi SC · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: K. Sugimori
78′🟨 YELLOW · 71' K. Tanabe · Renofa Yamaguchi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: R. Yamamoto · Off: K. Tanabe
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tochigi SC · On: R. Sakurai · Off: W. I. Suzuki
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: N. Misawa · Off: K. Noyori
FTFULL TIME Tochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi
FTTochigi SC 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi · Renofa Yamaguchi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tochigi SC win36%

Draw27%

Renofa Yamaguchi win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueKanseki Stadium Tochigi

Line-ups

Tochigi SC

Renofa Yamaguchi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tochigi SC

Renofa Yamaguchi

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tochigi SC

Formation not confirmed

41 R. Tashiro

88 K. Uchida

3 R. Higashi

14 S. Suzuki

17 K. Sugimori

23 H. Sese

7 R. Osako

13 K. Osone

77 J. Nakamura

10 T. Igarashi

20 W. I. Suzuki

Coach · Atsushi Yoneyama

Substitutes

1 · S. Kawata

5 · Y. Yanagi

37 · Y. Kimura

2 · R. Sakurai

81 · K. Nakano

80 · K. Otabor

18 · Y. Matsushita

16 · T. Myogan

25 · T. Yamaguchi

Renofa Yamaguchi

Formation not confirmed

35 K. Uchiyama

15 T. Itakura

5 K. Yoshioka

33 S. Kikuchi

2 R. Ozawa

17 K. Tanabe

40 H. Naruoka

8 K. Noyori

4 K. Nakashima

19 S. Yamamoto

13 S. Watanabe

Coach · Michiharu Otagiri

Substitutes

41 · M. Iida

14 · R. Shimodo

77 · R. Yamamoto

43 · J. Suzuki

88 · N. Nomura

7 · N. Misawa

11 · K. Fujioka

22 · S. Kubo

70 · R. Gunji

Our number · renofa yamaguchi winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Renofa Yamaguchi a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · renofa yamaguchi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tochigi SC win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Renofa Yamaguchi win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	54%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Tochigi SC or draw	63%	64%	−1
Tochigi SC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Renofa Yamaguchi clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.3 12.1 6.8 2.7 1 11.8 12.4 7.6 3.1 2 6.4 7.4 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tochigi SC down, Renofa Yamaguchi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tochigi SC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Renofa Yamaguchi away: 1.60 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Tochigi SC, 1.18 for Renofa Yamaguchi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J3 League

TOCHIGI SC

LWDLLD1–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

RENOFA YAMAGUCHI

DWWWDW0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Nara Club	10	+5	20
4	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
5	Osaka	10	+9	17
6	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
10	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
11	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
12	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
13	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
16	Thespakusatsu Gunma	10	−9	9
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5