Tochigi SC v Ehime FC prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tochigi SCDrawEhime FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ehime FC 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ehime FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tochigi SC 32%, draw 24%, Ehime FC 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Tochigi SC v Ehime FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Tochigi SC win32%

Draw24%

Ehime FC win44%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueKanseki Stadium Tochigi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tochigi SC

Ehime FC

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ehime fc winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Ehime FC a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tochigi SC v Ehime FC~~1.22 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 26~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tochigi SC win	32%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Ehime FC win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Tochigi SC or draw	56%	–	–
Tochigi SC clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ehime FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 10.8 7.4 3.7 1 9.0 11.1 8.7 4.4 2 5.0 7.2 5.3 2.7 3 2.0 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tochigi SC down, Ehime FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,788 J3 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tochigi SC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ehime FC away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Tochigi SC, 1.50 for Ehime FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOC 1–1 EHI · EHI 0–0 TOC · EHI 0–1 TOC · TOC 2–1 EHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept

TOCHIGI SC

LDLLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

EHIME FC

WDWWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5