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Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga

Tochigi SC
1–0Full time
Biwako Shiga

J3 League · WED 21 OCT · Kanseki Stadium Tochigi

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 07:30
Tochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga TOCHIGI SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tochigi SC win41%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.519
The market’s Brier score0.425

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tochigi SC win at 41%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Tochigi SC 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–33
  4. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Haruki Tsutsumi · Tochigi SC
  5. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Tochigi SC win 35%)
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Tochigi SC 0–0 Biwako Shiga
  7. 48′HALF-TIME Tochigi SC 0–0 Biwako Shiga
  8. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  9. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Biwako Shiga
  10. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Miyake · Off: R. Yamaguchi
  11. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Biwako Shiga
  12. 54′We said Tochigi SC at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–47–24
  14. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Biwako Shiga
  15. 64′We said Tochigi SC at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
  16. 65′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  17. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Tochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga
  18. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
  19. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Tochigi SC win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 55%)
  20. 66′Tochigi SC find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  21. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Matsubara · Off: S. Akiyama
  22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Nakamura · Off: G. Umiguchi
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tochigi SC · On: T. Igarashi · Off: T. Myogan
  24. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  25. 74′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Kikushima · Off: S. Tatsuta
  27. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tochigi SC · On: Y. Matsushita · Off: T. Aoshima
  28. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tochigi SC · On: K. Sugimori · Off: K. Otabor
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tochigi SC · On: W. I. Suzuki · Off: Y. Kondo
  30. 81′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  31. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Biwako Shiga · On: F. Romero · Off: I. Sakamoto
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tochigi SC · On: S. Suzuki · Off: K. Osone
  34. 87′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  35. 96′1–0 at the end. Our 41% on Tochigi SC comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Tochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga
  37. FTTochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga · Tochigi SC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tochigi SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tochigi SC 41%, draw 25%, Biwako Shiga 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Tochigi SC v Biwako ShigaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tochigi SC win41%
Draw25%
Biwako Shiga win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKanseki Stadium Tochigi

Line-ups

Tochigi SC

Biwako Shiga

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tochigi SC

Biwako Shiga

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Biwako Shiga11−214
16Tochigi SC11−510

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tochigi SC

Formation not confirmed

41 R. Tashiro

37 Y. Kimura

5 Y. Yanagi

26 T. Tabata

6 K. Abe

11 T. Aoshima

15 H. Tsutsumi

13 K. Osone

80 K. Otabor

16 T. Myogan

9 Y. Kondo

Coach · Atsushi Yoneyama

Substitutes

1 · S. Kawata

14 · S. Suzuki

24 · R. Tabata

17 · K. Sugimori

18 · Y. Matsushita

29 · K. Yano

77 · J. Nakamura

20 · W. I. Suzuki

10 · T. Igarashi

Biwako Shiga

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Kushibiki

14 T. Shiraishi

37 A. Nabeta

2 S. Hirai

4 K. Ide

30 R. Yamaguchi

32 G. Umiguchi

7 E. Kubo

18 S. Akiyama

9 I. Sakamoto

23 S. Tatsuta

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · Y. Motoyoshi

3 · M. Miyagi

48 · S. Tanida

26 · S. Tsunoda

8 · K. Nakamura

66 · K. Matsubara

24 · F. Romero

15 · T. Kikushima

11 · K. Miyake

Our number · tochigi sc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
41% The market47%
Us41%
Market47%

We make Tochigi SC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga1.35 – 1.19
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 10 v 1416 v 11
The market · Tochigi SC win47% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 04:38
Our probability · Tochigi SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tochigi SC win41%47%−6
Draw25%27%−2
Biwako Shiga win34%26%+8
Over 2.5 goals46%53%−7
Both teams to score50%56%−6
Over 1.5 goals71%76%−5
Over 3.5 goals25%32%−7
Tochigi SC or draw66%74%−8
Tochigi SC clean sheet31%––
Biwako Shiga clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 7.4 10.2 5.6 2.2 1 11.5 11.7 7.3 2.9 2 7.2 8.4 4.9 3 3.3 3.8 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tochigi SC down, Biwako Shiga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept

TOCHIGI SC

DLLDLL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

BIWAKO SHIGA

LWLDDL1–2 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kagoshima United11+1026
2Ehime FC11+1223
3Renofa Yamaguchi11+923
4Nara Club11+623
5Sagamihara11+821
6FC Gifu11+1119
7Osaka11+717
8Roasso Kumamoto11+417
9Parceiro Nagano11+117
10Kanazawa11+214
11Biwako Shiga11−214
12FC Ryukyu11−214
13Gainare Tottori11−714
14Kitakyushu11−413
15Matsumoto Yamaga11−311
16Tochigi SC11−510
17Thespakusatsu Gunma11−910
18Fukushima United11−68
19Kamatamare Sanuki11−115
20Kochi United11−215

The competition's standings before kick-off.