

Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga
Tochigi SC
Biwako ShigaJ3 League · WED 21 OCT · Kanseki Stadium Tochigi
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Tochigi SC win at 41%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Tochigi SC v Biwako Shiga
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Tochigi SC 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–33
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Haruki Tsutsumi · Tochigi SC
- 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Tochigi SC win 35%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Tochigi SC 0–0 Biwako Shiga
- 48′HALF-TIME Tochigi SC 0–0 Biwako Shiga
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
- 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Biwako Shiga
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Miyake · Off: R. Yamaguchi
- 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Biwako Shiga
- 54′We said Tochigi SC at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–47–24
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Biwako Shiga
- 64′We said Tochigi SC at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
- 65′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Tochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
- 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Tochigi SC win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 55%)
- 66′Tochigi SC find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Matsubara · Off: S. Akiyama
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Nakamura · Off: G. Umiguchi
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tochigi SC · On: T. Igarashi · Off: T. Myogan
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
- 74′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Kikushima · Off: S. Tatsuta
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tochigi SC · On: Y. Matsushita · Off: T. Aoshima
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tochigi SC · On: K. Sugimori · Off: K. Otabor
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tochigi SC · On: W. I. Suzuki · Off: Y. Kondo
- 81′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Tochigi SC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Biwako Shiga · On: F. Romero · Off: I. Sakamoto
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tochigi SC · On: S. Suzuki · Off: K. Osone
- 87′We said Tochigi SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 96′1–0 at the end. Our 41% on Tochigi SC comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Tochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga
- FTTochigi SC 1–0 Biwako Shiga · Tochigi SC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Tochigi SC are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Tochigi SC 41%, draw 25%, Biwako Shiga 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Tochigi SC win41%
Biwako Shiga win34%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueKanseki Stadium Tochigi
Match timeline
All events
Tochigi SCMIN
Biwako ShigaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Tochigi SC
Biwako Shiga
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Tochigi SC
Biwako Shiga
Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League
Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Tochigi SC
Formation not confirmed
41 R. Tashiro
37 Y. Kimura
5 Y. Yanagi
26 T. Tabata
6 K. Abe
11 T. Aoshima
15 H. Tsutsumi
13 K. Osone
80 K. Otabor
16 T. Myogan
9 Y. Kondo
Coach · Atsushi Yoneyama
Substitutes
1 · S. Kawata
14 · S. Suzuki
24 · R. Tabata
17 · K. Sugimori
18 · Y. Matsushita
29 · K. Yano
77 · J. Nakamura
20 · W. I. Suzuki
10 · T. Igarashi
Biwako Shiga
Formation not confirmed
21 M. Kushibiki
14 T. Shiraishi
37 A. Nabeta
2 S. Hirai
4 K. Ide
30 R. Yamaguchi
32 G. Umiguchi
7 E. Kubo
18 S. Akiyama
9 I. Sakamoto
23 S. Tatsuta
Coach · –
Substitutes
41 · Y. Motoyoshi
3 · M. Miyagi
48 · S. Tanida
26 · S. Tsunoda
8 · K. Nakamura
66 · K. Matsubara
24 · F. Romero
15 · T. Kikushima
11 · K. Miyake
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Tochigi SC
Formation not confirmed
41 R. Tashiro
37 Y. Kimura
5 Y. Yanagi
26 T. Tabata
6 K. Abe
11 T. Aoshima
15 H. Tsutsumi
13 K. Osone
80 K. Otabor
16 T. Myogan
9 Y. Kondo
Coach · Atsushi Yoneyama
Substitutes
1 · S. Kawata
14 · S. Suzuki
24 · R. Tabata
17 · K. Sugimori
18 · Y. Matsushita
29 · K. Yano
77 · J. Nakamura
20 · W. I. Suzuki
10 · T. Igarashi
Biwako Shiga
Formation not confirmed
21 M. Kushibiki
14 T. Shiraishi
37 A. Nabeta
2 S. Hirai
4 K. Ide
30 R. Yamaguchi
32 G. Umiguchi
7 E. Kubo
18 S. Akiyama
9 I. Sakamoto
23 S. Tatsuta
Coach · –
Substitutes
41 · Y. Motoyoshi
3 · M. Miyagi
48 · S. Tanida
26 · S. Tsunoda
8 · K. Nakamura
66 · K. Matsubara
24 · F. Romero
15 · T. Kikushima
11 · K. Miyake
We make Tochigi SC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC win | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Biwako Shiga win | 34% | 26% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 53% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 32% | −7 |
| Tochigi SC or draw | 66% | 74% | −8 |
| Tochigi SC clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
| Biwako Shiga clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept
TOCHIGI SC
BIWAKO SHIGA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 11 | +10 | 26 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 11 | +9 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 7 | Osaka | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Biwako Shiga | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Ryukyu | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 11 | −7 | 14 |
| 14 | Kitakyushu | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 11 | −3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 11 | −5 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 11 | −9 | 10 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 11 | −6 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 11 | −11 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 11 | −21 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kagoshima United
Ehime FC
Renofa Yamaguchi
Nara Club
Sagamihara
FC Gifu
Osaka
Roasso Kumamoto
Parceiro Nagano
Kanazawa
FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Fukushima United
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kochi United