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Thespakusatsu Gunma v Kamatamare Sanuki

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1–0Full time

Kamatamare Sanuki

J3 League · SAT 24 OCT · Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–0 Kamatamare Sanuki THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Thespakusatsu Gunma win~~47%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.425

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.633

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Thespakusatsu Gunma win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Thespakusatsu Gunma 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
1′KICK-OFF Thespakusatsu Gunma v Kamatamare Sanuki
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′SECOND HALF Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–0 Kamatamare Sanuki
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: S. Kawakami · Off: J. Ishikura
47′HALF-TIME Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–0 Kamatamare Sanuki
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Thespakusatsu Gunma win 37%)
51′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–40–25
53′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–41–24
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Kamatamare Sanuki
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–43–24
63′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Kazama · Off: A. Sakurai
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: G. Sehata · Off: S. Yonehara
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: T. Harada · Off: M. Hyakuda
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: A. Ueno · Off: S. Woo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: Y. Morikawa · Off: Y. Murakami
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: S. Sago · Off: K. Makiyama
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
70′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
76′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Kotake · Off: K. Matsumoto
81′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
82′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: R. Yonezawa · Off: S. Arita
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–0 Kamatamare Sanuki
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 91% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Thespakusatsu Gunma win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 78%)
84′Thespakusatsu Gunma find the net on 83′. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
85′We said Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Aoki · Off: T. Nakashima
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 Kamatamare Sanuki
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 9% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Thespakusatsu Gunma win 93%)
86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Kamatamare Sanuki
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Thespakusatsu Gunma win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 84%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–0 Kamatamare Sanuki
FTThespakusatsu Gunma 1–0 Kamatamare Sanuki · Thespakusatsu Gunma win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thespakusatsu Gunma are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thespakusatsu Gunma 47%, draw 23%, Kamatamare Sanuki 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Thespakusatsu Gunma v Kamatamare SanukiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Thespakusatsu Gunma win47%

Draw23%

Kamatamare Sanuki win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueShoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Kamatamare Sanuki

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	12	−11	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	−9	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thespakusatsu gunma winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

47% The market35%

Us47%

~~Market~~35%

We make Thespakusatsu Gunma a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thespakusatsu Gunma v Kamatamare Sanuki~~1.65 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~18 v 19

~~The market · Thespakusatsu Gunma win~~35% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Thespakusatsu Gunma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thespakusatsu Gunma win	47%	35%	+12
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Kamatamare Sanuki win	30%	37%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw	70%	63%	+7
Thespakusatsu Gunma clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kamatamare Sanuki clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.8 7.7 4.4 1 9.7 10.4 7.1 3.0 2 7.3 9.1 5.7 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thespakusatsu Gunma down, Kamatamare Sanuki across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kamatamare Sanuki away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Thespakusatsu Gunma, 1.27 for Kamatamare Sanuki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAM 3–2 THE · THE 3–3 KAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA

WLLWDL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

KAMATAMARE SANUKI

LLDLLW1–2 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	12	+12	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
4	Nara Club	12	+4	23
5	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
6	Sagamihara	12	+7	21
7	Osaka	12	+9	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	12	−11	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	−9	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5