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Thespakusatsu Gunma v FC Ryukyu

Thespakusatsu Gunma

2–1Full time

FC Ryukyu

J3 League · SAT 10 OCT · Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2–1 FC Ryukyu THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Thespakusatsu Gunma win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Thespakusatsu Gunma win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Thespakusatsu Gunma 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Thespakusatsu Gunma v FC Ryukyu
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 FC Ryukyu
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 FC Ryukyu
21′FC Ryukyu ahead on 6′ through Y. Kato. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Thespakusatsu Gunma win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' FC Ryukyu win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Thespakusatsu Gunma win 18%)
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 FC Ryukyu · Y. Kato
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 FC Ryukyu
45′SECOND HALF Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 FC Ryukyu
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Thespakusatsu Gunma 2–1 FC Ryukyu · R. Fujimura
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Thespakusatsu Gunma 2–1 FC Ryukyu
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Ryukyu · On: T. Teruuchi · Off: Y. Ueno
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Ryukyu · On: T. Ishiura · Off: Y. Tomidokoro
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Ryukyu · On: T. Teruuchi · Off: Y. Ueno
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: R. Kamigaki · Off: R. Fujimura
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Matsumoto · Off: M. Hyakuda
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Kazama · Off: T. Shimokawa
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Ryukyu · On: N. Kawaguchi · Off: Y. Kato
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Aoki · Off: T. Nakashima
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Ryukyu · On: H. Horiuchi · Off: H. Fujiharu
96′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Tanaka · Off: J. Nodake
FTFULL TIME Thespakusatsu Gunma 2–1 FC Ryukyu
FTThespakusatsu Gunma 2–1 FC Ryukyu · Thespakusatsu Gunma win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Thespakusatsu Gunma win44%

Draw23%

FC Ryukyu win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Kondo

2 R. Nakamura

16 K. Yamahara

3 R. Ohata

22 M. Nuki

27 R. Fujimura

28 J. Nodake

19 M. Farzan Sana

20 T. Shimokawa

17 M. Hyakuda

99 T. Nakashima

Coach · Masaru Okita

Substitutes

88 · Kim Je-hee

30 · T. Koyanagi

8 · R. Kamigaki

15 · K. Kazama

6 · S. Yonehara

77 · S. Kotake

9 · S. Aoki

18 · S. Tanaka

29 · K. Matsumoto

FC Ryukyu

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sato

14 J. Suzuki

27 Y. Funabashi

4 H. Fujiharu

23 K. Sota

32 F. Takayanagi

13 S. Iwamoto

17 Y. Kato

16 K. Ihori

10 Y. Tomidokoro

18 Y. Ueno

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · R. Miyamoto

24 · N. Kawaguchi

11 · T. Ishiura

8 · H. Horiuchi

46 · R. Ikeda

55 · Y. Koki

19 · T. Teruuchi

9 · H. Asakawa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Kondo

2 R. Nakamura

16 K. Yamahara

3 R. Ohata

22 M. Nuki

27 R. Fujimura

28 J. Nodake

19 M. Farzan Sana

20 T. Shimokawa

17 M. Hyakuda

99 T. Nakashima

Coach · Masaru Okita

Substitutes

88 · Kim Je-hee

30 · T. Koyanagi

8 · R. Kamigaki

15 · K. Kazama

6 · S. Yonehara

77 · S. Kotake

9 · S. Aoki

18 · S. Tanaka

29 · K. Matsumoto

FC Ryukyu

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sato

14 J. Suzuki

27 Y. Funabashi

4 H. Fujiharu

23 K. Sota

32 F. Takayanagi

13 S. Iwamoto

17 Y. Kato

16 K. Ihori

10 Y. Tomidokoro

18 Y. Ueno

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · R. Miyamoto

24 · N. Kawaguchi

11 · T. Ishiura

8 · H. Horiuchi

46 · R. Ikeda

55 · Y. Koki

19 · T. Teruuchi

9 · H. Asakawa

Our number · thespakusatsu gunma winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make Thespakusatsu Gunma a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · thespakusatsu gunma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thespakusatsu Gunma win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	23%	26%	−3
FC Ryukyu win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	64%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw	67%	62%	+5
Thespakusatsu Gunma clean sheet	27%	–	–
FC Ryukyu clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.3 8.0 4.9 2.1 1 9.4 10.8 7.4 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.6 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thespakusatsu Gunma down, FC Ryukyu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,756 J3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Ryukyu away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Thespakusatsu Gunma, 1.31 for FC Ryukyu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCR 3–2 THE · THE 0–0 FCR

Form · last six in J3 League

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA

WLLWLL2–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3

FC RYUKYU

LWWLDL1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
4	Osaka	10	+9	17
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
6	Nara Club	9	+3	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
10	Biwako Shiga	9	0	13
11	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
12	Parceiro Nagano	9	−2	11
13	FC Ryukyu	9	−2	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	9	−4	10
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
17	Fukushima United	9	−5	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	9	−10	6
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	9	−17	5