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Sagamihara v Tochigi SC

Sagamihara

0–0Full time

Tochigi SC

J3 League · SAT 24 OCT · Sagamihara Gion Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Sagamihara 0–0 Tochigi SC SAGAMIHARA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sagamihara win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sagamihara win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sagamihara 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Sagamihara v Tochigi SC
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Sagamihara
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Sagamihara
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Tochigi SC
34′🟨 YELLOW · 31' T. Tabata · Tochigi SC
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sagamihara win 35%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 31' R. Yamauchi · Sagamihara
45′SECOND HALF Sagamihara 0–0 Tochigi SC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Sagamihara win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
46′HALF-TIME Sagamihara 0–0 Tochigi SC
52′We said Sagamihara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–47–24
61′We said Sagamihara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Tochigi SC · On: K. Sugimori · Off: T. Igarashi
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sagamihara win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′We said Sagamihara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
77′We said Sagamihara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: A. Tanahashi · Off: Y. Muto
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: S. Okita · Off: R. Yamauchi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: T. Takeuchi · Off: T. Shimakawa
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Tochigi SC
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sagamihara win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′We said Sagamihara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tochigi SC · On: J. Nakamura · Off: K. Nakano
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tochigi SC · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: Y. Kondo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Tochigi SC · On: S. Suzuki · Off: T. Tabata
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sagamihara · On: M. Handai · Off: R. Sugimoto
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sagamihara · On: Y. Kawabata · Off: T. Maeda
89′We said Sagamihara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
93′0–0 at the end. Our 40% on Sagamihara misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Tochigi SC · On: Y. Yanagi · Off: R. Higashi
FTFULL TIME Sagamihara 0–0 Tochigi SC
FTSagamihara 0–0 Tochigi SC · Sagamihara win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sagamihara are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagamihara 40%, draw 27%, Tochigi SC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sagamihara v Tochigi SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sagamihara win40%

Draw27%

Tochigi SC win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSagamihara Gion Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagamihara

Tochigi SC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sagamihara	12	+7	21
15	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sagamihara winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:12 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Sagamihara a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagamihara v Tochigi SC~~1.20 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 13~~6 v 15

~~The market · Sagamihara win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sagamihara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagamihara win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Tochigi SC win	33%	28%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	48%	−9
Both teams to score	44%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Sagamihara or draw	67%	72%	−5
Sagamihara clean sheet	35%	–	–
Tochigi SC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 9.7 11.9 5.9 2.1 1 13.3 12.2 6.9 2.5 2 7.5 7.8 4.1 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagamihara down, Tochigi SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagamihara at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tochigi SC away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Sagamihara, 1.07 for Tochigi SC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOC 0–2 SAG · SAG 4–0 TOC · TOC 1–2 SAG · SAG 1–0 TOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept

SAGAMIHARA

LDWWWL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

TOCHIGI SC

LLDLLW1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	12	+12	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
4	Nara Club	12	+4	23
5	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
6	Sagamihara	12	+7	21
7	Osaka	12	+9	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	12	−11	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	−9	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5