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Sagamihara v Kamatamare Sanuki

Sagamihara

3–2Full time

Kamatamare Sanuki

J3 League · FRI 9 OCT · Sagamihara Gion Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:02

Sagamihara 3–2 Kamatamare Sanuki SAGAMIHARA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sagamihara win~~48%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.405

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.322

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sagamihara win48%

Draw25%

Kamatamare Sanuki win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 10:30

Venue · Sagamihara Gion Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sagamihara

Formation not confirmed

21 Kim Min-ho

19 S. Okita

5 R. Yamauchi

13 M. Tokida

2 K. Watahiki

4 T. Shimakawa

8 K. Kambe

15 T. Maeda

10 R. Nakayama

24 R. Sugimoto

9 K. Sasaki

Coach · Yuki Stalph

Substitutes

1 · M. Miura

16 · S. Kato

26 · S. Sato

6 · Y. Tokunaga

22 · Y. Okuyama

11 · Y. Muto

93 · T. Phochai

34 · M. Handai

20 · Y. Kawabata

Kamatamare Sanuki

Formation not confirmed

55 K. Aoki

34 R. Namimoto

30 H. Oka

6 S. Miyazaki

29 K. Tao

33 S. Kawakami

66 S. Woo

60 Y. Morikawa

11 R. Sano

99 R. Yonezawa

10 Y. Goto

Coach · Naoto Otake

Substitutes

1 · Y. Imamura

40 · S. Takashima

20 · Lee Gi-San

5 · M. Kokubun

17 · K. Makiyama

14 · J. Ishikura

77 · Y. Murakami

86 · H. Asada

16 · S. Arita

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sagamihara

Formation not confirmed

21 Kim Min-ho

19 S. Okita

5 R. Yamauchi

13 M. Tokida

2 K. Watahiki

4 T. Shimakawa

8 K. Kambe

15 T. Maeda

10 R. Nakayama

24 R. Sugimoto

9 K. Sasaki

Coach · Yuki Stalph

Substitutes

1 · M. Miura

16 · S. Kato

26 · S. Sato

6 · Y. Tokunaga

22 · Y. Okuyama

11 · Y. Muto

93 · T. Phochai

34 · M. Handai

20 · Y. Kawabata

Kamatamare Sanuki

Formation not confirmed

55 K. Aoki

34 R. Namimoto

30 H. Oka

6 S. Miyazaki

29 K. Tao

33 S. Kawakami

66 S. Woo

60 Y. Morikawa

11 R. Sano

99 R. Yonezawa

10 Y. Goto

Coach · Naoto Otake

Substitutes

1 · Y. Imamura

40 · S. Takashima

20 · Lee Gi-San

5 · M. Kokubun

17 · K. Makiyama

14 · J. Ishikura

77 · Y. Murakami

86 · H. Asada

16 · S. Arita

Our number · sagamihara winPublished 9 Oct 10:31

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make Sagamihara a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagamihara win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	25%	25%	−1
Kamatamare Sanuki win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Sagamihara or draw	73%	79%	−6
Sagamihara clean sheet	36%	–	–
Kamatamare Sanuki clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 9.1 4.4 1 12.8 11.6 6.2 2.2 2 8.9 8.9 4.6 3 4.4 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagamihara down, Kamatamare Sanuki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,754 J3 League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagamihara at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kamatamare Sanuki away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Sagamihara, 1.02 for Kamatamare Sanuki. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAM 2–0 SAG · SAG 1–1 KAM · KAM 0–0 SAG · SAG 2–1 KAM

Form · last six in J3 League

SAGAMIHARA

LDWLDW1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

KAMATAMARE SANUKI

LLLLLD3–4 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
4	Nara Club	9	+3	17
5	Osaka	9	+9	16
6	Sagamihara	9	+5	15
7	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
8	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
9	Kanazawa	9	+3	13
10	Biwako Shiga	9	0	13
11	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
12	Parceiro Nagano	9	−2	11
13	FC Ryukyu	9	−2	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	9	−4	10
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
17	Fukushima United	9	−5	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	9	−10	6
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	9	−7	5
20	Kochi United	9	−17	5