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Roasso Kumamoto v Gainare Tottori

Roasso Kumamoto
3–0Full time
Gainare Tottori

J3 League · WED 21 OCT · Egao Kenko Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Roasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori ROASSO KUMAMOTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Roasso Kumamoto win50%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.374
The market’s Brier score0.321

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Roasso Kumamoto win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Roasso Kumamoto was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Roasso Kumamoto v Gainare Tottori
  4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Gainare Tottori
  5. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Gainare Tottori
  6. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  7. 43′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–41–21
  8. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Roasso Kumamoto win 40%)
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Roasso Kumamoto 0–0 Gainare Tottori
  10. 46′HALF-TIME Roasso Kumamoto 0–0 Gainare Tottori
  11. 52′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
  12. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Gainare Tottori · On: N. Miki · Off: H. Konishi
  13. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  14. 61′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–16
  15. 68′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
  16. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Roasso Kumamoto · On: K. Fujii · Off: Bae Jeong-Min
  17. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Roasso Kumamoto · On: T. Nakayama · Off: Y. Katori
  18. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Roasso Kumamoto · On: H. Ozawa · Off: S. Nagai
  19. 69′We published Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  20. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Roasso Kumamoto 1–0 Gainare Tottori
  21. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 86% now
  22. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Roasso Kumamoto win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 63%)
  23. 70′Roasso Kumamoto find the net on 70′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
  24. 73′Roasso Kumamoto ahead on 69′ through T. Nakayama. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
  25. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gainare Tottori · On: K. Hoshi · Off: I. Fujita
  26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gainare Tottori · On: D. Shinoda · Off: K. Hombo
  27. 75′We published Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  28. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Roasso Kumamoto 2–0 Gainare Tottori
  29. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 76′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  31. 76′A goal for Roasso Kumamoto on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  32. 79′We published Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Roasso Kumamoto · On: A. Iihoshi · Off: K. Negishi
  35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Roasso Kumamoto · On: R. Ishida · Off: E. Matsuda
  36. 81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Roasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Moon · Off: R. Arai
  39. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Kaneura · Off: S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden
  40. 83′Roasso Kumamoto score on 82′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  41. 94′Full time, 3–0. We called Roasso Kumamoto at 50% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  42. FTFULL TIME Roasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori
  43. FTRoasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori · Roasso Kumamoto win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roasso Kumamoto are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roasso Kumamoto 50%, draw 26%, Gainare Tottori 24%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Roasso Kumamoto v Gainare TottoriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Roasso Kumamoto win50%
Draw26%
Gainare Tottori win24%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEgao Kenko Stadium

Line-ups

Roasso Kumamoto

Gainare Tottori

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roasso Kumamoto

Gainare Tottori

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Roasso Kumamoto11+417
13Gainare Tottori11−714

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Roasso Kumamoto

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Sato

4 R. Yakushida

24 T. Ri

3 R. Onishi

22 E. Matsuda

27 K. Negishi

25 K. Nasu

17 S. Nagai

29 N. Mishina

10 Y. Katori

9 Bae Jeong-Min

Coach · Tomohiro Katanosaka

Substitutes

23 · Y. Sato

26 · S. Toda

37 · H. Ozawa

13 · A. Iihoshi

39 · R. Ishida

7 · K. Fujii

28 · Y. Yoshioka

14 · O. Ishihara

32 · T. Nakayama

Gainare Tottori

Formation not confirmed

47 R. Momoi

4 S. Nikaido

3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden

55 H. Oshima

16 Y. Tasei

7 R. Arai

2 I. Fujita

27 K. Hombo

14 T. Kawamura

19 S. Yamamoto

29 H. Konishi

Coach · Kentaro Hayashi

Substitutes

88 · A. Burns

32 · M. Moon

42 · M. Kaneura

15 · T. Kiuchi

10 · N. Miki

8 · A. Tojo

24 · K. Hoshi

9 · D. Shinoda

Our number · roasso kumamoto winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
50% The market54%
Us50%
Market54%

We make Roasso Kumamoto a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Roasso Kumamoto v Gainare Tottori1.40 – 0.86
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 17 v 148 v 13
The market · Roasso Kumamoto win54% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Roasso Kumamoto win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Roasso Kumamoto win50%54%−4
Draw26%25%+1
Gainare Tottori win24%22%+2
Over 2.5 goals39%55%−16
Both teams to score42%55%−13
Over 1.5 goals65%77%−12
Over 3.5 goals20%34%−14
Roasso Kumamoto or draw76%78%−2
Roasso Kumamoto clean sheet43%––
Gainare Tottori clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%
0123450 10.0 9.8 3.9 1 15.3 11.5 5.3 2 10.1 8.5 3.7 3 4.8 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Roasso Kumamoto down, Gainare Tottori across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsGAI 1–1 ROA · GAI 0–2 ROA · ROA 0–1 GAI · GAI 1–2 ROA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept

ROASSO KUMAMOTO

WDWDLW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

GAINARE TOTTORI

WLLWLD4–2 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kagoshima United11+1026
2Ehime FC11+1223
3Renofa Yamaguchi11+923
4Nara Club11+623
5Sagamihara11+821
6FC Gifu11+1119
7Osaka11+717
8Roasso Kumamoto11+417
9Parceiro Nagano12017
10FC Ryukyu12−117
11Kanazawa11+214
12Biwako Shiga12−314
13Gainare Tottori11−714
14Tochigi SC12−413
15Kitakyushu12−513
16Matsumoto Yamaga11−311
17Fukushima United12−511
18Thespakusatsu Gunma11−910
19Kamatamare Sanuki11−115
20Kochi United11−215

The competition's standings before kick-off.