

Roasso Kumamoto v Gainare Tottori
Roasso Kumamoto
Gainare TottoriJ3 League · WED 21 OCT · Egao Kenko Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Roasso Kumamoto win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Roasso Kumamoto was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Roasso Kumamoto v Gainare Tottori
- 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Gainare Tottori
- 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Gainare Tottori
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 43′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–41–21
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Roasso Kumamoto win 40%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Roasso Kumamoto 0–0 Gainare Tottori
- 46′HALF-TIME Roasso Kumamoto 0–0 Gainare Tottori
- 52′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Gainare Tottori · On: N. Miki · Off: H. Konishi
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
- 61′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–16
- 68′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Roasso Kumamoto · On: K. Fujii · Off: Bae Jeong-Min
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Roasso Kumamoto · On: T. Nakayama · Off: Y. Katori
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Roasso Kumamoto · On: H. Ozawa · Off: S. Nagai
- 69′We published Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Roasso Kumamoto 1–0 Gainare Tottori
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 86% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Roasso Kumamoto win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 63%)
- 70′Roasso Kumamoto find the net on 70′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
- 73′Roasso Kumamoto ahead on 69′ through T. Nakayama. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gainare Tottori · On: K. Hoshi · Off: I. Fujita
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gainare Tottori · On: D. Shinoda · Off: K. Hombo
- 75′We published Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Roasso Kumamoto 2–0 Gainare Tottori
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
- 76′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 76′A goal for Roasso Kumamoto on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 79′We published Roasso Kumamoto at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Roasso Kumamoto win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Roasso Kumamoto · On: A. Iihoshi · Off: K. Negishi
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Roasso Kumamoto · On: R. Ishida · Off: E. Matsuda
- 81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Roasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Moon · Off: R. Arai
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Kaneura · Off: S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden
- 83′Roasso Kumamoto score on 82′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 94′Full time, 3–0. We called Roasso Kumamoto at 50% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Roasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori
- FTRoasso Kumamoto 3–0 Gainare Tottori · Roasso Kumamoto win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Roasso Kumamoto are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Roasso Kumamoto 50%, draw 26%, Gainare Tottori 24%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Roasso Kumamoto win50%
Gainare Tottori win24%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueEgao Kenko Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Roasso KumamotoMIN
Gainare TottoriEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Roasso Kumamoto
Gainare Tottori
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Roasso Kumamoto
Gainare Tottori
Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League
Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Roasso Kumamoto
Formation not confirmed
1 S. Sato
4 R. Yakushida
24 T. Ri
3 R. Onishi
22 E. Matsuda
27 K. Negishi
25 K. Nasu
17 S. Nagai
29 N. Mishina
10 Y. Katori
9 Bae Jeong-Min
Coach · Tomohiro Katanosaka
Substitutes
23 · Y. Sato
26 · S. Toda
37 · H. Ozawa
13 · A. Iihoshi
39 · R. Ishida
7 · K. Fujii
28 · Y. Yoshioka
14 · O. Ishihara
32 · T. Nakayama
Gainare Tottori
Formation not confirmed
47 R. Momoi
4 S. Nikaido
3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden
55 H. Oshima
16 Y. Tasei
7 R. Arai
2 I. Fujita
27 K. Hombo
14 T. Kawamura
19 S. Yamamoto
29 H. Konishi
Coach · Kentaro Hayashi
Substitutes
88 · A. Burns
32 · M. Moon
42 · M. Kaneura
15 · T. Kiuchi
10 · N. Miki
8 · A. Tojo
24 · K. Hoshi
9 · D. Shinoda
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Roasso Kumamoto
Formation not confirmed
1 S. Sato
4 R. Yakushida
24 T. Ri
3 R. Onishi
22 E. Matsuda
27 K. Negishi
25 K. Nasu
17 S. Nagai
29 N. Mishina
10 Y. Katori
9 Bae Jeong-Min
Coach · Tomohiro Katanosaka
Substitutes
23 · Y. Sato
26 · S. Toda
37 · H. Ozawa
13 · A. Iihoshi
39 · R. Ishida
7 · K. Fujii
28 · Y. Yoshioka
14 · O. Ishihara
32 · T. Nakayama
Gainare Tottori
Formation not confirmed
47 R. Momoi
4 S. Nikaido
3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden
55 H. Oshima
16 Y. Tasei
7 R. Arai
2 I. Fujita
27 K. Hombo
14 T. Kawamura
19 S. Yamamoto
29 H. Konishi
Coach · Kentaro Hayashi
Substitutes
88 · A. Burns
32 · M. Moon
42 · M. Kaneura
15 · T. Kiuchi
10 · N. Miki
8 · A. Tojo
24 · K. Hoshi
9 · D. Shinoda
We make Roasso Kumamoto a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 47%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roasso Kumamoto win | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Gainare Tottori win | 24% | 22% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 55% | −16 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 55% | −13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 77% | −12 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 34% | −14 |
| Roasso Kumamoto or draw | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Roasso Kumamoto clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Gainare Tottori clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept
ROASSO KUMAMOTO
GAINARE TOTTORI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 11 | +10 | 26 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 11 | +9 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 7 | Osaka | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | −1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | −3 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 11 | −7 | 14 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 12 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 12 | −5 | 13 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 11 | −3 | 11 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | −5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 11 | −9 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 11 | −11 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 11 | −21 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kagoshima United
Ehime FC
Renofa Yamaguchi
Nara Club
Sagamihara
FC Gifu
Osaka
Parceiro Nagano
FC Ryukyu
Kanazawa
Biwako Shiga
Tochigi SC
Kitakyushu
Matsumoto Yamaga
Fukushima United
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kochi United